South Africa’s aluminium industry has breathed a communal sigh of relief following the announcement that aluminium will be exempt from the sweeping 30 per cent reciprocal tariffs unveiled by US President Donald Trump. The relief stems from a strategic carve-out for “critical minerals,” under which aluminium is classified, ensuring continued access to a vital export market for South African producers.
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On April 2, President Trump signed an executive order imposing reciprocal tariffs starting at 10 per cent on imports from most trading partners, with rates escalating to as much as 49 per cent for specific countries. However, Section 3(b) of the order explicitly exempts “certain critical minerals”, including aluminium, reflecting the administration’s recognition of America’s dependence on foreign sources for essential manufacturing inputs. This exemption takes effect alongside the broader tariffs, which begin on April 5, with higher country-specific rates phased in by April 9.
Muzi Manzi, CEO of the Aluminium Federation of South Africa (AFISA), said that while the full details of the executive order were still under review, initial indications pointed to an exemption for aluminium. “If, as it appears, we have not been slapped with the additional tariffs, if anything, we have been exempted because the US has demand issues with aluminium,” he said, highlighting America’s reliance on imports to meet domestic consumption. He added, “It is classified as a strategic mineral along with some other commodities. The only thing that could have an effect is if demand in that market lowered because of the inflationary impact of the new direction on tariffs.”
As a globally traded commodity, aluminium prices are determined on platforms such as the London Metal Exchange. Manzi noted South Africa’s competitiveness, stating, “As a country, we are highly competitive, as evidenced by our ability to export to the US and European global markets. The African Growth and Opportunity Act does improve our competitiveness. However, other producers are experiencing countervailing and anti-dumping duties in the US market.”
He further suggested that the US policy shift could catalyse domestic value‑addition. “Any changes in the US may be the much-needed accelerant for the local industry with government support to realise increased downstream processing of aluminium,” he said.
Gerhard Papenfus, CEO of the National Employers’ Association of South Africa (Neasa), pointed out the nuanced nature of exemptions: “It is true that a delegation from Japan, Israel or elsewhere will be received differently from a South African delegation because of the politics, but it is different on a commercial level.”
The South African Steel and Iron Institute (SAISI) highlighted the significance of the US market for value‑chain participants. For example, Duferco Steel Processing (DSP) in Saldanha exported 106,000 tons of galvanised and stainless-steel products to the US last year, representing 77 per cent of its output. Even if a 25 per cent import tariff were universally applied, the impact could be mitigated by the fact that the US remains a net importer of roughly 20 million tons of steel annually.
Donald MacKay, CEO of XA Global Trade Advisors, challenged the factual basis of the tariffs aimed at South Africa. Trump’s assertion that a “discounted reciprocal tariff” of 30 per cent against South Africa was justified because of 60 per cent tariffs charged on US exports was “a factual error”.
MacKay explained that South Africa’s average tariff on US goods is only 7.5 per cent, meaning that a reciprocal rate, by the administration’s logic, should be around 3.75 per cent, not 30 per cent. He conveyed the importance of minerals, especially platinum, in bilateral trade, “Of the goods worth ZAR 153 billion (USD 7.9 billion) that South Africa exported to the US in 2024, about half were minerals and about half of that is platinum.”
He also warned of the practical limits of reshoring manufacturing: “It’s very easy to sign off on a tariff policy; much harder to build a factory. The US isn’t miraculously going to have the capacity to build all of these cars, such as Mercedes Benz and BMW units locally manufactured and exported to the US.”
While the exemption offers immediate relief, industry leaders caution that it is not a panacea. Downstream beneficiation remains a strategic imperative for South Africa’s aluminium roadmap, requiring sustained government support and investment to move up the value chain. As global trade policy continues to shift under the banner of economic security, the aluminium sector will watch closely for further policy refinements and opportunities to deepen local processing — ensuring that South Africa not only exports raw materials but also captures greater value from its mineral wealth.
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