Alcoa releases preliminary Q2 results, indicating potential growth in revenue, net income, and adjusted EBITDA

On July 10, 2024, Alcoa Corporation announced its preliminary second quarter 2024 results ahead of its final declaration of report on July 16, 2024. The preliminary data indicates improved financial results, primarily attributed to higher average realised third-party prices of alumina and aluminium.

In Q2 2024, Alcoa’s revenue is estimated to range between US$2,850-2,925 million, demonstrating an increase of around 6-10 per cent from $2,599 million in Q1 2024 and US$2,684 million in Q2 2023.

Net income attributable to Alcoa is likely to hover around US$5-25 million, compared to a net loss to Alcoa of US$252 million in Q1. This expected improvement in Alcoa’s net income is due to the non-recurrence of a charge of $197 million as was in Q1 2024 related to the curtailment of the Kwinana refinery, in addition to the above-mentioned higher alumina and aluminium prices.

Adjusted net loss will likely be US$15-35 million during Q2 2024, reflecting an improvement from US$145 million in Q1 2024 and US$62 million in Q2 2023.

Adjusted EBITDA excluding special items is also estimated to grow in Q2 2024, ranging between US$310-330 million, compared to US$132 million in Q1 2024 and US$137 million in Q2 2023.

The rise in alumina and aluminium prices through Q2 2024 is poised to drive Alcoa’s potential financial results, offsetting the estimated decline in aluminium ore production and shipments. Alcoa is expected to see a sequential decline in production by about 5 per cent due to the shutdown of the Kwinana refinery in June 2024 and reduced output at its JV, Alcoa World Alumina and Chemicals, from 2.5 million tonnes to 2.4 million tonnes. Alcoa’s shipments of alumina are also expected to record a Q-o-Q decline of 5 per cent.

In contrast, aluminium production is expected to remain consistent in Q2 2024, and shipments are likely to register a 7 per cent growth due to the timing of shipments and the restart of one potline at Warrick operations in the first quarter of 2024.