Alcoa’s prediction proves true as Canadian aluminium industry faces job losses due to US tariffs

Alcoa's job loss prediction in late February 2025 has come true, as evidenced by hundreds of job cuts in Canada due to US tariffs targeting aluminium and steel. Companies operating in Canada's aluminium and steel sectors have already started reporting significant impacts of tariffs, including job cuts in both sectors. Permanent and temporary workers are being laid off, with some receiving early retirement notices and certain companies freezing hiring processes altogether.

Bill Oplinger, CEO of Alcoa, had conveyed at the BMO Global Metals and Mining Conference in Florida that the tariff implementation could lead to a massive job loss of about 20,000 employees within the US aluminium industry and a further 80,000 jobs across the value-chain sectors that support it. This projection was supported by market analysts and economists, who cautioned that the tariffs could result in significant economic disruption, including job losses, operational stoppages at smelters and plants, or even complete shutdowns.

So far, two Canadian companies from the aluminium and steel sectors have reported layoffs. Among them is Canada Metal Processing Group, which has laid off about 140 employees, and Ontario-based Algoma Steel, which has let go of 27 workers. Algoma's CEO says more job cuts will follow if it does not secure new Canadian clients to compensate for the businesses it lost in the US market.

The United Steelworkers union, representing more than 225,000 members in Canada, believes these job losses are merely the initial indicators of more profound economic consequences. Especially after the end of a 30-day reprieve agreement with Mexico and Canada on April 2, 2025, further impacts are expected to follow.

The United Steelworkers union warns that the next wave of tariffs will likely affect 100,000 of its members across Canada, especially those closely associated with export-heavy supply chains.

In response to this economic stress, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced new financial measures, offering earlier access to economic insurance to those affected by tariff disputes. Earlier this month, the government also revealed a multi-billion-dollar business aid programme to support small and medium-sized companies, recognising tariff effects may extend beyond large corporations.

Deena Ladd of the Workers' Action Centre said smaller firms operating in or adjacent to the aluminium and steel industries started facing job losses. According to her, these small firms are often more susceptible to economic downturns due to limited legal protections and restricted access to support systems.

A spokesperson from Canada's labour department stated that ongoing monitoring of the tariff impacts will guide the introduction of additional financial measures if needed. With job losses expected to rise ahead of April, closer intervention will be implemented in the coming days.