Aluminium futures remain under pressure, trading below USD 2,400 per tonne and holding near their eight-month low of USD 2,340 hit on April 9. The slump is an after-effect induced by escalating US-China trade tensions that have cast a shadow over global manufacturing.
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Following tit-for-tat tariff hikes where China imposed 125 per cent duties and blacklisted more US firms, and the US retaliating with 245 per cent levies and fresh threats, investor confidence has taken a hit. The trade war fallout has overshadowed supply concerns in the US, where existing tariffs are already straining domestic capacity.
In China, output is nearing its 45-million-tonne cap, set to curb emissions, but slowing production hasn't been enough to lift prices as demand fears dominate the market.
A couple of days ago, Goldman Sachs revised its aluminium price forecast downward, citing a weaker global economic outlook. The bank now expects aluminium prices to average USD 2,000 per tonne in Q3 2025, down from an earlier forecast of USD 2,650. This adjustment is due to an anticipated global aluminium market surplus of 580,000 tonnes, contrasting with a previously forecasted deficit of 76,000 tonnes. The surplus is attributed to lower anticipated global aluminium demand growth, now revised to 1.1 per cent in 2025 and 2.3 per cent in 2026, compared to earlier predictions of 2.6 per cent and 2.4 per cent, respectively.
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