When Romanian aluminium producer Alro sounds the alarm, it’s not just about Romania. It’s a signal to the entire European industrial complex: brace for a flood of cheap Chinese aluminium — and brace fast.
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Image source: Taihe Institute
In a pointed public statement, Alro Chairman of the Board of Directors, Marian Năstase, warned of an imminent danger from Chinese aluminium imports priced below the cost of production. His message? Europe is sleepwalking into industrial decline while China quietly eats its lunch.
“The [trade war] affects us, most of all, not necessarily because we cannot sell more on the American market, but because we will be invaded by goods from Asia, mainly Indonesia and China, which will come and suffocate the European market, no longer being able to go to the United States,” he shared at an energy sector conference and was quoted by Economica.net.
The bigger picture: China’s aluminium muscle
China produces over 60 per cent of the world’s aluminium. While it has capped primary production at 45 million tonnes annually, that cap hasn’t stopped semi-finished exports, particularly rolled and extruded aluminium, from surging globally. Chinese producers, once aided by VAT export rebates (scrapped in December 2024), are now offloading excess material at rock-bottom prices to maintain margins.
However, according to Chemanalyst, the removal of these tax rebates is expected to reduce Chinese aluminium exports by up to 9 per cent in 2025, potentially tightening global supply and influencing prices.
The result? Supply chain disruption for anyone outside China trying to compete fairly. And, with sky-high energy prices and weak industrial safeguards, Europe is the softest target.
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