China aluminium production to significantly grow in 2020: Andy Home at LME Week 2019

Andy Home, a Senior Metals Columnist at Thomson Reuters, said at the SMM London Metal Exchange Week 2019 that China’s aluminium production would likely grow significantly in 2020, indicating a potential jump in exports in anticipation of relatively moderate growth in domestic demand.

SMM research found Sichuan Guangyuan Zhongfu was planning to start a new capacity of 250,000 tonnes per year this month, while Yunnan Shenhuo would put its 150,000 tonnes per year capacity into operation.  The output from Mengtai which was commissioned in the second half of October was available in the markets, while it was heard that Xinfa would resume part of its capacity in November.

Home further said that considering the expectations of greater supply, the downside in aluminium prices would be expectedly limited in the coming years.

On the demand side, domestic growth is unlikely to meet the pace of supply expansion, Home estimates. He thinks the transport sector to be the stellar driver of aluminium consumption in China and elsewhere in the world.

On the US-China trade front, Home believes the US tariffs took no toll on China’s aluminium exports, other than the fact that the destinations of exports changed. While exports to the US dropped by 50 per cent, cargoes flowed to Asian and European countries.