China fears of secondary sanctions for supporting Russia with alumina supply

On March 20, in response to the Ukraine-Russia standoff, the Australian government had imposed a ban on the export of alumina, bauxite and other commodities to Russia. As a result, some industry analysts believe that Russia may now seek help from China for the alumina supply. However, Chinese aluminium smelters require the complete feedstock they can get and are apprehensive about sending alumina to Russia over the fear of falling under the sanction radar from the western world.

The embargo has already put the Russian aluminium under pressure, as the company receives about 19% of its alumina supply from Queensland Aluminium (QAL) in Australia, where it holds a 20% ownership stake. The news about Russia looking for alumina from China is still not confirmed, observers believe the scale of the Chinese market, its strong relations and locations, makes it an analytical decision.

Uday Patel, the senior manager of Wood Mackenzie stated that being the largest producer of alumina, China may use this opportunity to absorb the Australian alumina exports that were previously destined for Russia.

Anglo-Quebec Alliance and QAL Rio Tinto, which controls 80% of the company, did not answer inquiries for comment on what would happen to alumina shipments to Russia and if they were getting requests from Chinese enterprises.

According to ANZ analyst Soni Kumari, China’s domestic demand will be limited in terms of helping Russia.

"Russia could turn to China, but the country does not have enough export surpluses given their requirement to feed domestic smelters. Further, Chinese exporters would be cautious too due to fear of secondary sanctions,” commented Soni Kumari.