According to the Shanghai Metals Market (SMM) survey, China produced 3.562 million tonnes of primary aluminium in December (31 calendar days) 2023. That was an annual increase of 3.6 per cent, leading to a cumulative output of 41.513 million tonnes in the entire year.
Production analysis
The daily average domestic aluminium production recorded a drop of more than 3,800 tonnes month-on-month to stand at around 114,900 tonnes in December. Although domestic operating capacity increased slightly over a month, the electrolytic cells in Yunnan that were shut down previously no longer produced aluminium liquid.
The annual domestic output of 2023 experienced a rise of 3.6 per cent, found SMM.
In December 2023, the domestic aluminium liquid alloying ratio remained high, except for some smelters in Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, and other regions that saw an increase in the proportion of ingots. According to SMM, the proportion of aluminium liquid alloying in the aluminium industry increased 0.7 points M-o-M to around 74.1 per cent in December.
The total amount of aluminium ingot produced in 2023 was nearly 12.06 million tonnes, up by 11.3 per cent year-on-year.
Changes in capacity
In December 2023, domestic aluminium operating capacity was largely stable even amid tight power loads due to cold weather in Xinjiang, Qinghai, Inner Mongolia, and other regions. Smelters in Sichuan and Shanxi carried out maintenance activities, albeit on a small scale, totalling 30,000 tonnes. In terms of new capacity, Inner Mongolia Baiyinhua was put into operation smoothly. At the end of December 2023, the installed aluminium capacity in China was about 45.19 million tonnes, while the operating capacity was around 41.98 million tonnes, with the operating rate growing 0.2 points M-o-M to 92.9 per cent.
Short-term forecast
Shanghai Metals Market forecasts that domestic aluminium operating capacity will stabilise at around 42 million tonnes by January 2024. The monthly production in January (31 days) is estimated to be around 3.56 million tonnes, up 4.2 per cent Y-o-Y. There is no severe power supply shortage yet in Chinese provinces like Yunnan and other regions.
AL Circle in its latest industry-focused report, titled “Global Aluminium Industry Outlook 2024” has projected the Chinese primary aluminium output to come in at 42.4 million tonnes at the end of the ongoing year. The report offers a detailed chapter on the Chinese aluminium market with forecasts and analysis based on actual data.
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