China’s aluminium trade landscape saw stark contrasts in January 2025, as aluminium imports plummeted while bauxite imports soared. According to customs data, China’s imports of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products fell by 24.3 per cent year-on-year to 290,000 tonnes. In comparison, bauxite imports surged by 23.3 per cent to 11.62 million tonnes.
Here’s possibly why aluminium imports are falling
The decline in aluminium imports can largely be attributed to the closure of the import arbitrage window. The price differential between domestic and international aluminium has remained unfavourable for imports, with London Metal Exchange (LME) aluminium prices hovering above Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) rates.
In 2024, China’s total aluminium imports reached 2.3 million tonnes, down 16 per cent from 2023. The drop aligns with government initiatives to boost domestic production and improve recycling infrastructure. Furthermore, Beijing’s decision to cut import tariffs on certain recycled aluminium raw materials from January 2025 is expected to reduce reliance on primary aluminium imports.
Au contraire, bauxite imports surge, securing raw material supply
In contrast, China’s bauxite imports have continued their upward trajectory, with a clear indication towards the country’s aluminium production heightening intentions. Guinea remains the dominant supplier, accounting for 63 per cent of total imports, followed by Australia and Indonesia. The surge comes despite Indonesia’s ban on raw bauxite exports, implemented in mid-2023, which forced China to diversify its sourcing strategy.
“Guinea’s role in China’s supply chain is more critical than ever,” previously noted Mark Henderson, a commodities strategist at Macquarie Group. “With Indonesian bauxite off the table, China has ramped up imports from West Africa, ensuring that refinery operations remain unaffected,” Henderson added.
China’s alumina production in January reached 7.92 million tonnes, up 9.8 per cent year-on-year.
Trade policy updates in line with global market dynamics
The United States has hinted at imposing additional tariffs on Chinese aluminium, while the European Union continues to debate banning Russian aluminium amid ongoing geopolitical tensions. These external pressures have prompted China to focus on domestic production and raw material security.
Moreover, China’s green energy goals are shaping its trade policies. The government’s push for carbon neutrality by 2060 has led to greater investment in secondary aluminium production. In 2024, recycled aluminium output rose by 14 per cent, further reducing the need for imported primary aluminium.
Analysts predict that China’s aluminium imports will continue to decline through 2025, especially as more domestic smelting capacity comes online. However, bauxite imports are likely to remain strong as China ensures a steady raw material supply.
“China’s shift towards self-reliance in aluminium is clear,” said Wang Jianhua, Chief Analyst at Mysteel, also stating “The focus is now on securing raw materials while reducing external dependencies for refined metal.”
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