China’s export tax rebate cancellation sparks mixed reactions, where SMM’s positive outlook on aluminium semis industry stands out

The Chinese aluminium market has been in deep thought since the Ministry of Finance announced the removal of export tax rebates for a wide range of products, including aluminium plates, sheets, strips and foils. The concern is clear, as exports of aluminium plate, sheet and strip make up 50 per cent or above of the country’s total aluminium semi-finished product exports.

Image Source: The Wall Street Journal

According to the Shanghai Metals Market, China’s monthly aluminium semis exports in recent years have ranged between 400,000 and 600,000 tonnes, of which aluminium plate, sheet and strip exports account for 200,000 to 350,000 tonnes. Additionally, aluminium foil exports exceed 100,000 tonnes each month. Together, aluminium plates, sheets, strips, extrusions, and foils represent over 75 per cent of China’s monthly aluminium semis exports.

China is the epicentre of aluminium plate, sheet, strip and foil production and the world’s largest exporter of these products. According to AL Circle report, "Aluminium Foil and its End Uses: Current Trends & Forecast to 2030", China's aluminium foil export  increased at a CAGR of 8.4 per cent until 2022, standing at 1.462 million tonnes, withstanding higher tariffs imposed on product exports by several countries or regions.