China’s September aluminium output aligns with SMM forecast, showing a monthly dip but a positive near-term outlook
In September 2024, China's aluminium production increased by 1.45% compared to the previous year, aligning with the expected figures from the Shanghai Metal Market. The operation resumption in Sichuan and Guizhou after technical upgrades boosted the production on a year-on-year basis.
However, on a month-on-month calculation, the output is likely to have decreased from 3.689 million tonnes to 3.574 million tonnes, possibly due to estimated slower production in Yunnan.
Due to the traditional peak season during September and October, the production and demand for downstream alloy products increased, driving the proportion of liquid aluminium up by 0.7 percentage points M-o-M and 0.6 percentage points Y-o-Y to approximately 73.76 per cent. As a result, the casting ingot production decreased by 0.67 per cent Y-o-Y to around 937,900 tonnes.
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