Is foil import from China on track to tank post India’s anti-dumping duty enforcement?

In a calculated move to tackle the overstuffing of the ‘material in question’ in its domestic aluminium industry, the Indian government imposed a provisional anti-dumping duty on aluminium foil imports from China. Effective from March 17, 2025, this measure levies duties ranging between USD 619 and USD 873 per tonne on aluminium foil up to 80 microns in thickness, with the exception of foil below 5.5 microns intended for non-capacitor applications.

This action follows the Directorate General of Trade Remedies’ (DGTR) preliminary findings, which concluded that the influx of low-priced Chinese aluminium foil has inflicted material injury on India’s domestic producers. 

The DGTR’s investigation revealed that Chinese imports had seized nearly 30 per cent of the Indian market despite the country’s ample local production capacity. China exported 1.56 million tonnes of aluminium foil in 2024, among which 10 per cent was sent to India, the BofA analysts said in a note to clients on Monday, citing Shanghai Metal Market data.

“According to SMM, [...] India’s anti-dumping measure would impact China aluminium export,” the analysts led by Matty Zhao wrote.

The surge in Chinese aluminium foil imports has been more than domestic anticipation. In the first eleven months of 2024, India imported 140,234 tonnes from China, marking a 15.64 per cent increase compared to the same period in the previous year. This consistent upward trend has been evident since 2021, raising concerns among Indian aluminium producers about the potential for increased market saturation, especially in light of similar tariffs imposed by other countries.