Recent data from the Italian National Institute of Statistics (ISTAT) reveal a slight uptick of 0.5 per cent in Italy's industrial production for May, marking a welcome but cautious recovery, as reported by ING Think. Adjusted for working days, however, production still falls behind last year by 3.3 per cent, indicative of ongoing challenges in the sector. Comparisons to pre-COVID levels underscore a more significant decline of 5.7 per cent.
The positive momentum was driven by gains in consumer goods, intermediate goods, and energy sectors, buoyed possibly by lower energy costs benefiting energy-intensive industries like chemicals. In contrast, investment goods recorded another monthly decline, signalling continued fragility in capital spending.
While these figures offer some optimism, it is important to note that analysts remain watchful of persistent headwinds affecting Italy's industrial landscape. This cautious optimism reflects the sector's ongoing challenges.
According to ING's forecasts, the industrial sector continues to face challenges, showing no signs of immediate improvement based on recent business surveys. Both production and order book indicators declined further in June, hitting their lowest levels since December 2020. While the slight decrease in inventory levels suggests potential for future production increases through restocking, this is expected to materialise after year-end.
Despite a possible modest uptick in June data, industrial production appears poised for its fifth consecutive quarterly contraction in the second quarter, indicating that the sector won't contribute to overall economic growth.
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