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AL CIRCLE

LME aluminium price attains US$2300/t level in Sep'23 after over 3 months; short-term future looks bullish due to year-end restocking

EDITED BY : 3MINS READ

The benchmark aluminium price on the London Metal Exchange in September 2023 recorded an increase of US$123.50 per tonne or 5.65 per cent to reach US$2,307.50 per tonne. The price started flaunting a steady growth towards the second half of the month compared to the initial days. After initiating the month on September 1 at US$2,184 per tonne, the LME aluminium benchmark price dwindled the next two days by US$47.50 per tonne to stand at US$2,136.50 per tonne as of September 5. The price grew intermittently on September 6 to US$2,158 per tonne before declining further to US$2,132.50 per tonne as of September 8. From September 11, the LME aluminium price started growing steadily from US$2,154 per tonne, with a few intermittent declines. 

LME aluminium price attains US$2300/t level after over 3 months; short-term future looks bullish due to year-end active consumption

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At the end of September 2023, the LME aluminium benchmark price marked a hike of US$142 per tonne or 6.56 per cent compared to US$2,165.50 per tonne at the end of August 2023. The price also registered an annual increase of 5.85 per cent from US$2,180 per tonne.

The price hit the US$2,300 per tonne level at the end of September after more than three months. The last time the LME aluminium price attained that level was on May 18, at US$2,312 per tonne. 

The reason behind the small but gradual rebound in the aluminium benchmark price was the rising metal supplies from China that acted as a headwind to higher aluminium prices. The other reasons included the United States Federal Reserve’s pending price hikes that encouraged the strong US dollar index and inspired aluminium restocking activities.

Going ahead, the LME aluminum benchmark price is expected to see a short-term bullish trend, backed by growing year-end seasonal restocking activity and Chinese government support policy to recover sluggish economy to boost metal consumption across the end-use markets. 

However, this month has started with bearish aluminium prices from US$2,286 per tonne to US$2,208 per tonne, as of October 6. 

Global Aluminium Industry Key Trends to 2030

SHFE aluminium price

The SHFE aluminium benchmark price also flaunted growth through September 2023 but was range-bound. The price initiated the month at US$2,673 per tonne and grew by 1.08 per cent to close at US$2,702 per tonne. On a month-on-month calculation, the price edged an increase of US$70 per tonne or 2.66 per cent from US$2,632 per tonne, and on a year-on-year basis stood 4.69 per cent higher. 

The SHFE aluminium price touched the US$2,700 per tonne level at the end of September since the last time in early April when it hovered around US$2,712 per tonne. 

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