Market Commentary: European aluminium industry performance report 2024

The European aluminium industry needs swift action to keep the region competitive in the wake of high energy prices, expensive raw materials and increased global competition, Paul Voss, director general of industry body European Aluminium, told S&P Global Commodity Insights in an interview at the aluminium trade fair in Dusseldorf on October 8, 2024. "There is a need for a serious shift to competitiveness for the European aluminium industry; we won't sit and wait for someone to solve our problems; we must engage," Voss said.

According to International Aluminium Institute (IAI) data, the European aluminium industry has steadily declined across the past decade, with Western and Central European primary aluminium production deflating 25.5 per cent from 2010 (production during this year was 3.8 million tonnes) to 2.83 million tonnes in 2024. Meanwhile, primary aluminium production in Russia and Eastern Europe only fell 5.57 per cent (production during calendar year 2024 was 4.16 million tonnes) from 4.25 million tonnes produced in 2010, IAI data showed.

IAI depicts the primary aluminium production data for several regions across the globe, including Africa, North America, South America, Asia, Western & Central Europe, Russia & Eastern Europe, Oceania, Gulf Cooperation Council, China, and an estimated unreported figure. The cumulative primary aluminium output from January 2024 to December 2024 accounted for 72,758 thousand tonnes. The Y-o-Y growth of production was close to 2.8 per cent, wherein production for the previous calendar year was 70,716 thousand tonnes.

Overall, global primary aluminium production appears to fluctuate throughout the year. While some regions show consistent production levels, others exhibit noticeable variations.

European trade analysis

According to the data fetched from the Global Aluminium Trade Monitor (GATM), in 2024, the EU's aluminium trade saw a continuation of trends from prior years, with imports significantly outpacing exports. Through October 2024, the EU imported an estimated 6,615,968 tonnes of aluminium, while exports stood at 1,677,842 tonnes. From a year-on-year perspective, both imports and exports have experienced significant fluctuations. Imports increased by approximately 11.6 per cent in 2020 (7,383,062 tonnes) and 9.1 per cent in 2021 (8,052,236 tonnes), followed by a more elevated rise of 13.3 per cent in 2022 (9,122,648 tonnes). However, in 2023, imports declined by 8.5 per cent to 8,347,217 tonnes. Exports, on the other hand, surged by 34.3 per cent in 2020 (2,254,016 tonnes) but then slowed down to 4.8 per cent in 2021 (2,361,840 tonnes). Subsequent years saw declines of 7.9 per cent in 2022 (2,175,322 tonnes) and 7.6 per cent in 2023 (2,009,162 tonnes).

The United Kingdom's aluminium trade between 2020 and YTD October 2024, as per HMRC data, reveals a consistent trend of imports significantly outpacing exports. In 2020, the UK exported 410,539 tonnes of aluminium while importing 825,864 tonnes. This import-heavy trade balance has continued throughout the period.