Primary aluminium production in Q1 2025 grows but at a lower rate– factors uncovered here

The International Aluminium Institute has revealed the world’s primary aluminium production for the first quarter of 2025, highlighting a year-on-year increase of 1.34 per cent. But if compared to the growth rate of last year, it is about a 3 per cent less. In Q1 2024, the world primary aluminium production was 17.869 million tonnes, up by 4.31 per cent from 17.131 million tonnes during the corresponding period of the previous year.

Let’s delve into why global primary aluminium production experienced a slower growth rate in Q1 2025, examine the total output during this period, and assess whether it aligns with the industry’s outlook for the year.

1. Q1 2025 Production

In the first quarter of 2025, the world primary aluminium production was 18.108 million tonnes, compared to 17.869 million tonnes in Q1 2024. In March (31 calendar days), the output stood at 6.23 million tonnes, up by 10.07 per cent from 5.66 million tonnes in February (28 calendar days). On a year-on-year calculation, it registered a 2.32 per cent increase from 6.089 million tonnes.

The daily average primary aluminium production during the period under review was 200,900 tonnes, up by 2.29 per cent from 196,400 tonnes a year ago, aligned with the growth rate seen through March.

The month-on-month production increase in March was driven by all the major primary aluminium producing regions. In China, the output grew by 8.8 per cent M-o-M from 3.4 million tonnes to 3.7 million tonnes, while that in Europe (including Russia) increased by 10.6 per cent from 537,000 tonnes to 594,000 tonnes. Even the Gulf Cooperation Council and Asia (ex-China) witnessed an increase in production M-o-M from 474,000 tonnes to 523,000 tonnes and from 374,000 tonnes to 415,000 tonnes, respectively.

Amid the M-o-M growth across all the major primary aluminium producing regions, why did growth rate showed a bearish trend in Q1 2025? One of the major reasons was the March production in all these countries remained range-bound compared to the output in January, perhaps narrowed the Y-o-Y growth rate of Q1 2025. According to IAI, the total primary aluminium production in March was only 6,000 tonnes higher than in January.

Moreover, the Y-o-Y restricted growth in each month of this year, particularly the decline in February by about 1 per cent annually, impacted the growth rate in Q1 2025 primary aluminium production.