According to SMM statistics, domestic aluminium production in March 2025 (31 days) increased by 3.7 per cent Y-o-Y and 11.2 per cent M-o-M. Domestic aluminium operating capacity increased M-o-M, mainly due to the gradual resumption of production at aluminium smelters, with some resumptions in February already yielding output.
The proportion of liquid aluminium at domestic aluminium smelters rebounded to normal levels, with the industry's liquid aluminium proportion increasing by 3.2 percentage points M-o-M and 0.15 percentage points Y-o-Y to 74.2 per cent. Additionally, due to losses, some downstream billet plants in Guangxi reduced production, leading to a decline in the liquid aluminium proportion at some local aluminium plants by the end of the month. Based on SMM's liquid aluminium proportion data, domestic aluminium casting ingot production in March increased by 3.1 per cent Y-o-Y to around 958,000 tonnes.
Capacity changes: As of the end of March, SMM statistics show that domestic aluminium existing capacity was approximately 45.81 million tonnes, and domestic aluminium operating capacity was around 43.88 million tonnes, with the industry's operating rate increasing by 0.5 percentage points M-o-M and 2.8 percentage points Y-o-Y to 95.8 per cent. Currently, aluminium smelters in Sichuan and Chongqing have basically completed resumption of production, and a technologically transformed aluminium plant in Guangxi is expected to resume production around October 2025, while another smelter in Guangxi, which cut production earlier due to losses, has resumed production; in addition, a replacement and upgrade project at an aluminium smelter in Qinghai has started production, contributing to the growth momentum of subsequent aluminium operating capacity.
Production forecast: Entering April 2025, domestic aluminium operating capacity is expected to rise again as some smelters start production and reach full capacity, with domestic aluminium annualised operating capacity expected to slightly increase to 43.92 million tonnes per year by the end of April. Aluminium prices are fluctuating at highs, and downstream demand has increased as the peak season approaches, but under the background of end-users driving down prices, processing fees for aluminium billets have declined, and losses in Guangxi's billet plants have led to renewed production cuts. The liquid aluminium proportion in April may slightly correct to around 73 per cent. Subsequent attention should be paid to the resumption of aluminium capacity in various regions and the operating conditions of downstream liquid aluminium such as aluminium billets.
Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.
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