Trump’s tariffs squeeze US import of aluminium through Q3 2018; semi-finished imports continue to stay strong

The latest data from US Geological Survey indicates that the total aluminium supply in the United States (Primary production, secondary recovery, and imports for consumption) stood at an estimated 7.6 million tonnes through September 2018, down 3% over the same period of 2017, where the supply stood at 8 million tonnes.

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Out of the total supply of aluminium, the US imported about 4.3 million tonnes of aluminium in the period from January to September 2018. Export during the same period stood at 1 million tonne. Apparent consumption ( total supply minus export) during the first three quarters of 2018 stood at about 7 million tonne.

When we look at the export statistics year over year, we see that the export of crude and alloyed aluminium and semi-finished aluminium stood at about 1 million tonne, up from about 996 thousand tonnes in the same period of 2017. Exports of Crude Metals and alloys as well as semi-finished products have increased in the reviewed period.  

While looking at the import statistics, we see a considerable drop in total aluminium and semi-finished import year over year. The import of crude and alloyed aluminium and semi-finished aluminium stood at about 4.3 million tonne in the period from January to September 2018, down from about 4.73 million tonnes in the same period of 2017. We further observe that imports of crude metals and alloys have dropped while import of semi-finished product continued to stay higher in comparison with the same period of 2017.

2018 is the year of Trump’s tariffs on aluminium and steel. The tariffs increased domestic production of aluminium causing a drop in import of the metal in crude and alloyed form.  Reopening of closed primary capacity has contributed to the drop in import of aluminium. The tariffs did not actually have much control on the import of semi-finished products as they continue to stay almost flat with slight increase from last year.