2025 can be called as the year of trade, tariffs and war. This week or that week, the tariff implications are growing stronger and more tensed with each passing day. The latest salvo being Scott Bessent’s statement that “all options are on the table,” including the potential delisting of Chinese companies from U.S. stock exchanges. This holds the potential to send shockwaves through the global aluminium industry. To know more about how this decision could become a turning point for Indian & non-Chinese aluminium producers click here.
This is not just it- as per the latest information, former U.S. President Donald Trump has announced sweeping new tariffs of up to 245 per cent on a broad array of Chinese imports. Combined with the existing 25 per cent levy, Chinese aluminium and steel exporters now face a staggering 270 per cent total tariff. This aggressive move marks a deepening of the ongoing U.S.-China trade war, triggering shockwaves across global markets, manufacturing sectors, and supply chains.
However, China is showing no sign of pressure inspite of such back-to-back implications. In a recent statement, He Zhigang, Deputy General Manager of Henan Mingtai Al. Industrial Co., remarked that Chinese producers have become “numb to tariffs,” having weathered years of trade restrictions from Western nations. He emphasised that demand for Chinese aluminium remains robust, thanks to its competitive edge. “It’s just a matter of time before we overcome this round of U.S. anti-dumping measures,” he said during an industry conference. But what gives rise to such confidence? Click here to learn it yourself.
As a result, aluminium futures continued to face downward pressure, trading below USD 2,400 per tonne and hovering close to the eight-month low of USD 2,340 as recorded on April 9. The decline is largely a ripple effect of the intensifying US-China trade tensions, which have dampened sentiment across global manufacturing markets.
A few days back, on Monday, April 14, Goldman Sachs lowered its aluminium price forecast 2025, citing a more bearish outlook following the introduction of new U.S. tariffs on aluminium and auto parts imports. The bank now projects aluminium prices to average USD 2,000 per tonne in Q3 2025, a significant drop from its earlier estimate of USD 2,650.
However, on the other hand, the North American aluminium market is anticipating demand growth in 2025 despite the ongoing trade war. Despite being at the centre of the ongoing trade war, North America—comprising the U.S. and Canada—remains a vital aluminium market, with demand consistently reaching into the millions of pounds each year, fuelled mainly by semi-fabricated and mill products. To know how, click here.
In a significant turn of events, India 7 years later, has again turned to WTO for consultations with the United States over tariffs imposed on aluminium and steel imports by the Trump administration in 2025. In response, the Trump administration stated that the tariffs were imposed on national security grounds and acts as a safeguard. To know more about what the Trump administration stated, click here.
Other important news includes
Alcoa Corporation reported a strong financial performance in the first quarter of 2025, showcasing a sharp rebound from the previous year and notable gains over the prior quarter. Net income more than doubled sequentially, caused by rising aluminium prices, disciplined cost management, and strategic operational choices.
Vedanta Aluminium has been hit with a hefty environmental penalty of INR 71.16 crore (USD 8.52 million) by the Odisha State Pollution Control Board on April 10, 2025, over an alleged violation of fly ash disposal regulations. The company, however, has strongly denied the accusations and is preparing to pursue legal action in response.
According to data from the General Administration of Customs, China exported 506,000 tonnes of unwrought aluminium and aluminium products in March 2025. This marks a slight year-on-year decline of 1.17 per cent but a notable month-on-month surge of 24.02 per cent.
China Hongqiao Group Limited, the world’s second-largest producer of primary aluminium, has received a credit rating upgrade from S&P Global Ratings, moving from ‘BB-’ to ‘BB’ with a stable outlook. The upgrade reflects the company’s strengthened financial position, marked by robust cash flow and reduced overall debt, even though it continues to rely heavily on short-term borrowing.
The London Metal Exchange (LME) is pleased to announce its approval of the first four LME-licensed warehouse facilities in Hong Kong. This follows the LME’s approval of Hong Kong as an LME warehouse location on 20 January 2025. The new storage facilities have been inspected and meet the LME’s standards with respect to transport and logistics criteria. They will be able to start storing LME-warranted metal in three months’ time when the location becomes live.
Canada’s manufacturing sector saw modest overall growth in February, with the aluminium and alumina industry leading the charge. According to Statistics Canada, total manufacturing sales edged up by 0.2 per cent to CAD 72.9 billion—the highest level since September 2023. This uptick was largely fuelled by a significant 8.3 per cent surge in primary metal sales, which hit a record CAD 6.9 billion.
Under the bauxite & alumina segment
Ghana is steadily positioning itself as a major player in the global bauxite industry while working to establish a fully integrated aluminium value chain. With an estimated 900 million tonnes of bauxite reserves concentrated in regions such as Awaso, Nyinahin, and Kyebi, the West African nation is focused on harnessing its natural resources to boost production and drive sustainable economic development.
In a significant move for the metals sector, Brazilian Rare Earth (BRE) and Rio Tinto have signed an updated agreement to advance the Amargosa bauxite-gallium project in Bahia, Brazil. This partnership aims to unlock one of the world’s highest-grade undeveloped gallium deposits while securing a vital new source of bauxite, the essential feedstock for aluminium smelting.
Rio Tinto, the world’s second-largest metals and mining corporation, has reportedly made a strong start to 2025, achieving record quarterly bauxite output and setting a new monthly production milestone in March.
Geomega Resources, in collaboration with Rio Tinto, has made notable strides in its bauxite residue valorisation pilot project, which began in March 2022. The process is divided into three sequential circuits, each undergoing independent testing and scaling.
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