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Upstream weekly: India doubling down on its ‘zero-for-zero’ push with the US amidst ongoing discussions over a potential BTA

EDITED BY : 4MINS READ

The aluminium industry is riding a wave of contrasts—soaring highs and unexpected lows—making it an especially captivating space right now. The sector has been buzzing with a string of major developments, each shaping the narrative in its own unique way.  Amidst the ongoing tariff tension, India's decision to revive the 'zero-for-zero' concept served as a breath of fresh air. Backed by its industrial sector, India is advocating for tariff-free trade on aluminium, steel, and automobiles as part of a proposed Bilateral Trade Agreement (BTA) with the United States.  To know more, click here.

Upstream weekly: India doubling down on its ‘zero-for-zero’ push with the US amidst ongoing discussions over a potential BTA

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The Indian government is reportedly set to begin bilateral trade talks with the United States on April 23, 2025, aiming to resolve the longstanding issue of the 25 per cent tariff on aluminium and steel exports. This initiative comes after India raised the matter with the World Trade Organisation, contending that the Trump-era tariffs were implemented as a safeguard measure rather than out of genuine national security concerns.

On April 2, 2025, President Donald Trump announced a broad set of tariffs — including those on aluminium — from the White House Rose Garden. Just weeks later, on April 22, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued a warning that these measures pose a risk to global economic growth. Citing escalating trade tensions and increasing policy uncertainty, the IMF also revised its global economic outlook downward.

The International Aluminium Institute has reported global primary aluminium production for the first quarter of 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.34 per cent. However, this marks a slowdown compared to last year's growth. To know the reasons, click here.

The United States' aluminium market in 2024 has continued its evident shift from primary to secondary production, marked by a decline in primary output and a rise in scrap recovery. According to the United States Geological Survey, primary aluminium production fell by 9.92 per cent, dropping from 750,000 tonnes in 2023 to 675,600 tonnes in 2024.

In a significant move advancing the London Metal Exchange's (LME) Asian strategy, the approval of its first four warehouse facilities in Hong Kong was announced in April 2025, stirring interest in the trading market. Operated by three company partnerships, these newly sanctioned warehouses are expected to begin storing LME-warranted metal within three months. To know more, read here.

The global alumina market has experienced a turbulent start to 2025, marked by a sharp price decline in the first quarter and a surge of new supply entering the market in recent weeks. Although analysts anticipate a potential price floor in the coming months, recent forecast adjustments underscore the fragility of short-term price momentum. To know why, click here.

Other important events

Amid recent media speculation—including reports of a proposal by Mr James Cameron to acquire Eurasian Resources Group (ERG)—Mr Shukhrat Ibragimov, Chairman of the Board of Directors and CEO of ERG, has clarified that no negotiations are currently underway concerning the sale of the company. As Kazakhstan’s sole producer of high-grade aluminium, ERG is also a key global supplier of copper and cobalt.

Premier Energies, a leading manufacturer of solar modules and cells, has announced the formation of a wholly owned subsidiary, Premier Energies GWC Private Limited. According to a regulatory filing, the new entity will specialize in the manufacturing and processing of silicon ingots and wafers, leveraging advanced technologies for use in solar cell applications.

Canyon Resources Limited, an Australian company in the bauxite mining sector, has advanced significantly with its Minim Martap Bauxite Project by adopting a two-phase development strategy. This approach is designed to fast-track production and pave the way for the first bauxite shipment by 2026.

According to data from China’s General Administration of Customs, the country imported 16.47 million tonnes of bauxite in March 2025—an increase of 14.23 per cent month-on-month (M-o-M) and 39.06 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y). Total bauxite imports for the first quarter of 2025 (January–March) amounted to 47.09 million tonnes, reflecting a 30.0 per cent Y-o-Y growth under HS code 26060000.

In the heart of Gramercy, Louisiana, a quiet struggle is taking shape. Atlantic Alumina’s refinery—the last operating alumina plant in the United States—is facing mounting pressure from evolving trade policies affecting metals, automobiles, and numerous foreign exporters. Once a proud symbol of industrial strength, the facility now stands at a crossroads, with the futures of more than 550 workers hanging in the balance.

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