West Africa’s bauxite powerhouse gears up for general elections following military governance

The West African nation and the world's largest producer of bauxite, Guinea, has been under military rule since September 2021, when Colonel Mamady Doumbouya led a coup against President Alpha Condé, citing widespread corruption, human rights violations, and economic mismanagement.

According to global media reports, Guinean Prime Minister Amadou Oury Bah announced that the country will return to constitutional rule in 2025. He further stated that a constitutional referendum is planned, followed by legislative and presidential elections within a reasonable timeframe.

Guinea's former president, Alpha Condé, had a long and tumultuous reign that ultimately paved the way for the 2021 coup, aimed at restoring stability in the nation, which stands as Africa's largest producer of bauxite. Elected in 2010 as Guinea's first democratically chosen leader, Condé's rise to power marked the end of 50 years of authoritarian rule under his two predecessors.

Guinea's military leaders, facing international pressure, initially pledged to hold a constitutional referendum and transition to civilian rule by the end of 2024. However, they failed to honour these commitments, instead intensifying crackdowns on opposition figures and civil society members through arrests and legal actions.

Guinea bauxite sector

Guinea’s bauxite exports have significantly increased globally, reaching a record high. The country’s bauxite exports are mainly transported by capsize bulkers. Guinea is the world’s largest producer of bauxite, followed by Australia and China.

Guinea:  Bauxite production & export, 2021-24 (in million tonnes)

Guinea is also the world’s largest bauxite exporter. In 2024, its production is estimated to reach 131 million tonnes, surpassing the 2023 production of 123 million tonnes. Guinea is noted as the largest exporter of bauxite to China.

Guinea halted bauxite exports to one of the largest primary aluminium producers of the Middle East in October 2024 to accelerate the development of its alumina refinery project. Earlier that year, the premium aluminium producer committed to constructing a refinery with an annual capacity of over 1 million tonnes of alumina. Meanwhile, the Guinean government issued a warning to China's State Power Investment Corp (SPIC), stating that it could lose its mining concession if it fails to commence commercial production by December 2028.

The establishment of new refineries is expected to benefit Guinea significantly, including increased state revenues and job creation. Additionally, alumina prices could be up to ten times higher than bauxite prices, enhancing the country's economic gains. To support workforce development in the alumina industry, the government announced a partnership in July 2024 with France's Alteo and the United Nations Industrial Development Organisation (UNIDO) to provide essential skills training for workers.

However, power supply remains a critical challenge, as refining bauxite into alumina is highly energy-intensive. With less than half of Guinea's population having access to electricity, securing sufficient power for these projects is a key concern.

Image credit: "Moving Shadows II, X", by Girma Berta