Aluminium market: The current situation of transactions and inventory game amid "Rising" voices

This morning, the SHFE aluminium front-month contract fluctuated at highs near RMB 20,750 per tonne, slightly above the daily moving average. In the East China market, aluminium prices rebounded to high levels, with market sentiment dominated by a wait-and-see approach, leading to sluggish transactions.

However, some suppliers remained optimistic about the market outlook, controlling their shipment pace and showing a clear sentiment to stand firm on quotes. The SMM A00 spot price was at a discount of RMB 60 per tonne to the SHFE 2503 contract, unchanged from the previous trading day, while SMM A00 aluminium ingot prices stood at RMB 20,690 per tonne, up RMB 90 per tonne from the previous trading day.

In the central China market, although traders were optimistic about the market outlook and showed a clear intention to stand firm on quotes, the concentrated arrival of trucked cargoes squeezed platform supplies, making it difficult for transactions at premiums in the central China market.

Downstream processing enterprises, affected by the rebound in aluminium prices, mainly picked up goods under long-term contracts at monthly average prices, while spot order transactions remained sluggish. The SMM central China A00 price was recorded at RMB 20,560 per tonne, up RMB 90 per tonne from the previous trading day, with the Henan-Shanghai price spread at RMB 130 per tonne. Actual market transactions were on par with the SMM central China price.

Regarding inventory, the daily inventory in major aluminium consumption regions tracked by SMM reached 845,000 tonnes, with an inventory buildup of 27,000 tonnes. The absolute inventory level continued to rise, and downstream sectors were still digesting finished goods and raw material inventories amid high aluminium prices. Market transactions were mainly driven by rigid demand. However, most suppliers currently hold a bullish outlook on the market, with an increasing sentiment to hold back cargoes, limiting the room for further expansion of spot market discounts.

Source: SMM