China’s alumina and aluminium prices continue their growth trajectories; Stimulus package likely to spur the trend ahead

On Tuesday, October 1, the average alumina price in China has surged by RMB 18 per tonne to halt at RMB 4,092 per tonne. If we follow the SMM graph, the alumina prices have risen unprecedentedly since August to support the rising demand from primary aluminium producers. W-o-W, the SMM alumina price has expanded by RMB 53 per tonne from RMB 4,039 per tonne on September 24.

Region-wise alumina price changes

As of today, the prices have grown in most of the regions, with the highest in Guizhou, where it has hiked by RMB 25 per tonne to settle at RMB 4,075 per tonne, followed by an expansion of RMB 20 per tonne in Shandong, Henan and Shanxi. The price in Shandong closed at RMB 4,050 per tonne, RMB 4,080 per tonne in Henan and RMB 4,160 per tonne in Shanxi. In Guangxi the alumina price has grown by RMB 5 per tonne to reach RMB 4,050 per tonne.

Domestic aluminium ingot price

As per the SMM data, the A00 aluminium ingot price has also risen by RMB 70 per tonne to settle at RMB 20,380 per tonne. The average prices are expected to range between RMB 20,360 per tonne and RMB 20,400 per tonne, with the spot contract price to be traded at a discount price of RMB 70 to RMB 30 per tonne.

The recent SMM data highlights that in regions like Tianjin, Shenyang and Linyi, the SMM domestic ingot prices have ascended by RMB 140 per tonne, RMB 130 per tonne and RMB 120 per tonne to clock at RMB 20,400 per tonne, RMB 20,410 per tonne and RMB 20,380 per tonne. In Gongyi, the price has moved up by RMB 90 per tonne to dock at RMB 20,380 per tonne. In Wuxi and Hangzhou, the prices have gained RMB 70 per tonne to arrive at RMB 20,380 per tonne, followed by RMB 20,190 per tonne in Foshan and RMB 20,330 per tonne in Hangzhou after witnessing a rise of RMB 70 per tonne.

Price rise outlook

It is anticipated that with improved buying and selling sentiment amongst the audience owing to the stimulus package declared last week, the prices will improve further in the coming days. As a result, the demand-production gap, initially creating hindrances, can also start to narrow down. The stimulus package featured reductions in mortgage rates, interest rate cuts, and measures to release bank reserves aimed at improving liquidity.

Other price changes

The domestic price of low-carbon aluminium has heightened by RMB 59 per tonne to settle at RMB 21,221 per tonne. As per the SMM graph, the price of high-purity aluminium (99.99%) price and high-purity aluminium (99.996%) price has grown by RMB 100 per tonne to peg at RMB 27,400 per tonne and RMB 28,400 per tonne.The price of aluminium alloy (A356) has gained RMB 100 per tonne to arrive at RMB 20,850 per tonne, with the average prices standing between RMB 20,700 per tonne and RMB 21,000 per tonne. On the other hand, the prices of both (ADC12) and (A380) have remained unchanged at RMB 20,700 per tonne and RMB 21,700 per tonne.