China’s alumina market closes the week at RMB5600/t; Record alumina price growth to potentially stabilise in 2025

SMM

On Friday, November 15, the average alumina spot price closed the week with a growth of RMB 33 per tonne to settle at RMB 5,600 per tonne. The alumina prices have shown incredible growth since September arriving at RMB 5,600 per tonne as of today.

China’s alumina market closes the week at RMB5600/t; Record alumina price growth to potentially stabilise in 2025
Image Source: Itaforte

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The prices have grown in most provinces except Lianyungang and Bayuquan, where they have remained unchanged at RMB 5,950 per tonne. In Henan and Shandong, the alumina prices have surged by RMB 50 per tonne and RMB 30 per tonne, settling at RMB 5,610 per tonne and RMB 5,580 per tonne. As per the SMM data, the prices in Shanxi, Guizhou and Guangxi have added RMB 25 per tonne to arrive at RMB 5,650 per tonne and RMB 5,550 per tonne.

As per reports, this year, disruptions in bauxite supply from Guinea and Brazil, coupled with production suspensions in Australia, have driven alumina prices up by 70 per cent, reaching a record RMB 5,645 ($779.77) per tonne on the Shanghai Futures Exchange. Consequently, aluminium prices have also risen almost 7 per cent this year.

Alumina prices to witness change in 2025

However, as per recent reports, the new capacity for bauxite-to-alumina conversion coming online next year is expected to ease tight supply conditions and potentially curb the record-breaking price rally of alumina, a key material in aluminium production. According to the Shanghai Metals Market (SMM), China may add over 13 million tonnes of new alumina capacity next year.

In India, Vedanta has plans to invest in a plant with an annual capacity of 6 million tons of alumina by 2026. Additionally, in Guinea, a subsidiary of Emirates Global Aluminium aims to establish a 2 million-tonne-per-year alumina refinery, scheduled to open in September 2026.

In Indonesia, two state-owned companies plan to double their refinery capacity in West Kalimantan province to 2 million tonnes, though no timeline has been provided. Meanwhile, elevated alumina prices and increased profit margins are anticipated to drive China's production capacity utilisation further, boosting supply. According to Shanghai Metals Market (SMM), China's alumina capacity, which totals 102.7 million tonnes, is currently being utilised at a rate of 83.6 per cent.

A00 aluminium ingot price

The price of China's A00 aluminium ingot has also expanded by RMB 210 per tonne to reach RMB 20,850 per tonne, with the spot contract price expected to be traded at a premium price of RMB 60 to RMB `100 per tonne. The average prices may range between RMB 20,830 per tonne and RMB 20,870 per tonne.

As per the SMM data, the prices in Linyi and Gongyi have surged by RMB 230 per tonne to peg at RMB 20,820 per tonne. On the same day, the prices in Gongyi and Wuxi ascended by RMB 230 per tonne and RMB 220 per tonne to arrive at RMB 20,780 per tonne and RMB 20,850 per tonne. In Foshan, the A00 aluminium ingot price has increased by RMB 210 per tonne to RMB 20,770 per tonne. In regions like Hangzhou, Chongqing and Shenyang, the domestic aluminium ingot prices have clocked an upward movement of RMB 210 per tonne to halt at RMB 20,850 per tonne (for both Hangzhou and Chongqing) and RMB 20,880 per tonne.

Other prices

The domestic price of low carbon aluminium has expanded by RMB 204 per tonne to peg at RMB 21,863 per tonne. For high-purity aluminium (99.99%) and high-purity aluminium (99.996%), the prices have gained RMB 200 per tonne to reside at RMB 27,900 per tonne and RMB 28,900 per tonne.

On the same day, the price of aluminium alloy (A356) surged by RMB 200 per tonne to clock at RMB 21,300 per tonne, with the average prices expected to range between RMB 21,100 per tonne and RMB 21,500 per tonne. For (ADC12) and (A380) the prices are expected to remain unchanged at RMB 20,900 per tonne and RMB 21,900 per tonne.

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