According to SMM estimates, China's bauxite production in January 2025 (31 days) decreased slightly by 1.4 per cent MoM but was up 12.2 per cent Y-o-Y, mainly because the production halt scale in Shanxi and Henan regions in January 2024 was larger than that in January this year. Overall, domestic bauxite production remained at a low level, and the supply-demand fundamentals of domestic bauxite maintained a tight balance.
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In terms of inventory, according to SMM data, the total bauxite raw material inventory of domestic alumina refineries in January 2025 slightly rebounded by 1.7 per cent M-o-M but decreased by 3.8 per cent Y-o-Y, with the overall inventory level remaining low. As of January 24, SMM statistics showed that the total bauxite inventory at nine ports was 13.95 million tonnes, and the port bauxite raw material inventory level also remained low. Although domestic imported bauxite supply is expected to increase significantly compared to September-November 2024 after the end of Guinea's rainy season, and the total bauxite imports in December 2024 increased by 2.63 million tonnes M-o-M, due to the high operating capacity of alumina, bauxite demand remained high. The overall supply-demand fundamentals still maintained a tight balance, and there is no significant inventory buildup expected for bauxite in the short term.
In the short term, the supply-demand balance for bauxite may remain tight. However, due to the sharp decline in spot alumina prices, the profit margin of alumina has narrowed significantly, and spot alumina prices are likely to fluctuate downward in the short term. Alumina refineries' willingness to accept high-priced bauxite raw materials has dropped significantly. Amid the tug-of-war between sellers and buyers, spot bauxite prices may pull back.
Source: SMM
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