In the previous night session, the most-traded SHFE aluminium 2506 contract opened at RMB 19,765 per tonne, with a high of RMB 19,810 per tonne, a low of RMB 19,730 per tonne, and closed at RMB 19,755 per tonne, up RMB 10 per tonne or 0.05 per cent from the previous close. LME aluminium opened at USD 2,386.5 per tonne, with a high of USD 2,403 per tonne, a low of USD 2,372 per tonne, and closed at USD 2,390 per tonne, up USD 5 per tonne or 0.21 per cent.
The General Office of the Jilin Provincial People's Government released the "Implementation Plan for the Special Action to Boost Consumption in Jilin Province" on April 22. It proposed that individual consumers who scrap eligible passenger vehicles and purchase new energy or fuel passenger vehicles that meet the vehicle purchase tax reduction policy will receive subsidies of RMB 20,000 and RMB 15,000, respectively.
The Guangdong Provincial Government held a Q1 economic situation analysis meeting, emphasising the need to continue efforts to stabilise the real estate market, strengthen the planning, design, and construction of good houses, and vigorously promote urban renewal and urban village renovation. The Guangdong Provincial Government held a Q1 economic situation analysis meeting, emphasising the need to introduce more incentive policies as soon as possible to actively solve difficulties for enterprises, stabilise the basic foreign trade situation, and actively promote the shift from export to domestic sales.
According to statistics released by the National Energy Administration on April 20, 2025, the national new PV installations from January to March 2025 were 59.71 GW (59.71 million kW), up 30.5 per cent Y-o-Y.
According to SMM statistics, on April 22, aluminium ingot inventories in Guangdong were 239,700 tonnes, in Wuxi were 225,400 tonnes, and in Gongyi were 88,100 tonnes, with total inventories in the three regions at 553,200 tonnes, up 400 tonnes from the previous day. Some suppliers held back cargoes due to bullish sentiment, and outflows from warehouses declined. Coupled with a slight increase in arrivals of northern cargoes this week, daily inventories in the three regions faced resistance to decline.
According to customs data, China's aluminium foil exports in March 2025 were 118,900 tonnes, up 22.3 per cent M-o-M but down 4.7 per cent Y-o-Y. Aluminium plate/sheet and strip exports in March 2025 were 268,800 tonnes, up 36.4 per cent M-o-M but down 3.3 per cent Y-o-Y. According to SMM statistics, aluminium billet inventories in Guangdong were 104,900 tonnes, and in Wuxi were 31,400 tonnes, with total inventories in the two regions at 136,300 tonnes, down 4,400 tonne M-o-M.
Cui Dongshu from the China Passenger Car Association stated that China's automobile exports from January to March were 1.54 million units, up 16 per cent Y-o-Y, and exports in March were 570,000 units, up 16 per cent Y-o-Y, with both Y-o-Y and M-o-M trends remaining strong. The main driving force this year is still the improvement in the competitiveness of Chinese products and the slight growth in the global south market.
Primary Aluminium Market: SHFE aluminium fluctuated downward in the morning session yesterday, with the first trading session fluctuating above RMB 19,800 per tonne. In the spot market, shipments in east and central China were slightly difficult, mainly due to increased purchases by suppliers. Specifically, spot premiums in east China significantly pulled back, with early market transactions at parity against SMM prices, later shifting to -10 and -20, mainly due to suppliers offloading cargoes and futures market pullback, with downstream purchasing as needed.
SMM A00 aluminium was quoted at RMB 19,880 per tonne, down RMB 30 per tonne from the previous day, with a premium of RMB 40 per tonne against the May contract, narrowing by RMB 20 per tonne from the previous day. Transactions in central China continued to weaken, with suppliers offloading cargoes. Early transactions were mainly at -10 against SMM central China prices. SMM central China A00 was recorded at RMB 19,810 per tonne against the SHFE aluminium 2505 contract, down RMB 40 per tonne from the previous day, with the Henan-Shanghai price spread at RMB -70 per tonne. Actual market transactions were at a discount of RMB 10 per tonne against SMM central China prices and RMB -30 per tonne against the 2505 contract.
Secondary aluminium raw materials: Yesterday, baled UBC was quoted at RMB 14,900-15,550 per tonne (excluding tax), and shredded aluminium tense scrap was quoted at RMB 15,950-17,450 per tonne (excluding tax). By product, shredded aluminium tense scrap and wheel hub removed from vehicle were in tight supply, with overall prices already at high levels. In the short term, aluminium scrap prices remain high, mainly due to low operating rates at downstream scrap utilisation enterprises and tight domestic aluminium tense scrap circulation, providing support for aluminium scrap prices.
Secondary aluminium alloy: Aluminium prices slightly pulled back yesterday, with SMM A00 aluminium down RMB 30 per tonne to RMB 19,880 per tonne from the previous day. Domestic SMM ADC12 prices remained stable in the range of RMB 20,500-20,700 per tonne. In the import market, overseas ADC12 was quoted at USD 2,430-2,450 per tonne, with an immediate loss of around RMB 600 per tonne for imported ADC12.
Currently, the demand side of the secondary aluminium market lacks effective support, with downstream purchasing enthusiasm remaining sluggish, leading to slower shipments from secondary aluminium plants and accumulation of finished product inventories, increasing destocking pressure for enterprises. Short-term upward momentum is insufficient, and secondary aluminium alloy prices are expected to continue fluctuating in the doldrums.
Summary: On the macro front, the domestic bullish atmosphere remains unchanged, but the impact of the US tariff war continues, with strong market sentiment of wait-and-see. Fundamentally, domestic aluminium ingot destocking provides support for spot premiums, strongly underpinning aluminium futures, with futures fluctuating. In terms of aluminium consumption, the comprehensive operating rate of the aluminium processing sector slightly corrected, with operating rates in other sectors slightly weakening except for aluminium wire and cable, and subsequent orders are expected to decline. The momentum for a significant rise in aluminium prices is insufficient, and domestic aluminium prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. As domestic aluminium demand transitions to the off-season, the price centre may show a pullback trend.
[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.]
Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.
Responses
