Imported bauxite CIF index slightly adjusted downward; Spot alumina prices may fluctuate downgrade

Futures Market: During the overnight session, the most-traded alumina 2505 futures contract opened at RMB 3,195 per tonne, reached a high of RMB 3,206 per tonne, a low of RMB 3,181 per tonne, and closed at RMB 3,197 per tonne, down RMB 8 per tonne or 0.24 per cent, with an open interest of 201,000 lots.

Ore Market: As of March 10, the SMM imported bauxite index stood at USD 94.74 per tonne, down USD 0.4 per tonne from the previous trading day, mainly due to transactions of Guinean bauxite with mainstream grades at USD 93 per tonne, leading to a lower price centre for the index. The SMM CIF average price for Guinean bauxite was USD 93 per tonne, unchanged from the previous trading day, while the SMM CIF average price for Australian bauxite was USD 91 per tonne, also unchanged.

Spot Alumina: On Monday, a Xinjiang aluminium plant tendered for the procurement of some alumina, with transaction prices ranging from RMB 3,520 to 3,540 per tonne delivered to the plant.

Industry News: U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed over the weekend that the "aluminium and steel tariffs" will proceed as scheduled. He expects the 25 per cent tariffs on steel and aluminium imports, originally set to take effect on Wednesday (12th), to be implemented as planned. According to customs data, in 2024, China's direct exports to the U.S. accounted for only 4.1 per cent of the total, while aluminium product exports to the US accounted for 16.5 per cent of the total. This indicates that the policy has limited impact on China's direct export volumes. However, attention should be paid to the risks of declining U.S. demand and weakening exports from Canada and Mexico, which may indirectly affect demand for Chinese aluminium semis.

Spot-Futures Price Spread Daily Report: According to SMM data, as of 11:30 a.m. on March 10, the SMM Alumina Index showed a premium of RMB 174 per tonne against the most-traded contract's latest transaction price.

Warehouse Warrant Daily Report: On March 10, the total registered warehouse warrants for alumina increased by 17,400 tonnes to 188,300 tonnes compared to the previous trading day. In Shandong, the total registered warehouse warrants remained unchanged at 4,513 tonnes. In Henan, the total registered warehouse warrants decreased by 1,201 tonnes to 14,400 tonnes. In Guangxi, the total registered warehouse warrants remained unchanged at 20,100 tonnes. In Gansu, the total registered warehouse warrants increased by 8,114 tonnes to 18,000 tonnes. In Xinjiang, the total registered warehouse warrants increased by 10,500 tonnes to 131,200 tonnes.

Overseas Market: As of March 10, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was USD 472 per tonne tonne, with an ocean freight rate of USD 20.05 per tonne. The USD/CNY exchange rate selling price was around 7.28. This price translates to an external selling price of approximately RMB 4,128 per tonne at major domestic ports, which is RMB 762 per tonne higher than domestic alumina prices. The alumina import window remains closed.

Summary: Recently, the tug-of-war between buyers and sellers in the alumina market continues, with sluggish spot alumina transactions and stable spot prices as the main trend. Overseas alumina transaction prices have further declined, and the domestic alumina export window remains closed, making it difficult for alumina exports to provide sustained demand. On the fundamentals side, no large-scale production cuts have been reported for operating alumina capacity, and the alumina market remains in a slight surplus. In the short term, spot alumina prices are expected to fluctuate downward.

Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle in its original form without any modifications or edits to the information.