In the overnight session, the most-traded alumina 2505 futures contract opened at RMB 3,348 per tonne, reached a high of RMB 3,380 per tonne and a low of RMB 3,348 per tonne, and finally closed at RMB 3,370 per tonne, up 0.66 per cent. Open interest stood at 168,000 lots, down 5,797 lots. Regarding spot alumina prices, on March 3, SMM alumina was quoted at RMB 3,381 per tonne, flat compared to the previous trading day.
Ore Market: As of March 3, the SMM Imported Bauxite Index was reported at $95.11 per tonne, down $1.15 per tonne from the previous trading day. The SMM Guinea Bauxite CIF average price was $93 per tonne, down $2 per tonne from the previous trading day, while the SMM Australian Bauxite CIF average price was $91 per tonne, down $4 per tonne from the previous trading day.
Industry Updates:
1. In Shanxi Province, the mainstream alumina refineries' caustic soda procurement price in March increased by RMB 500 per tonne compared to January-February. The delivery-to-factory price for 50 per cent ion membrane liquid caustic soda was approximately RMB 3,380-3,480 per tonne (converted to 100 per cent concentration), with slight price variations due to different transportation distances in some regions.
2. On February 28, 30,000 tonnes of alumina was transacted overseas at a price of $480 per tonne FOB Brazil, with shipment scheduled for early April.
Spot-Futures Price Spread Daily Report: According to SMM data, on March 3, the SMM Alumina Index showed a premium of 30 yuan/mt against the most-traded contract's latest transaction price at 11:30.
Warehouse Warrant Daily Report: On March 3, the total registered warehouse warrants for alumina decreased by 17,448 tonnes compared to the previous trading day, standing at 125,500 tonnes. In Shandong, the total registered warehouse warrants remained unchanged at 4,513 tonnes. In Henan, the total registered warehouse warrants decreased by 300 tonnes to 18,600 tonnes. In Guangxi, the total registered warehouse warrants decreased by 20,147 tonnes to 0 tonne. In Gansu, the total registered warehouse warrants remained unchanged at 6,616 tonnes. In Xinjiang, the total registered warehouse warrants increased by 2,999 tonnes to 9.58 tonne.
Overseas Market: As of March 3, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $472 per tonne, with ocean freight rates at $19.75 per tonne. The USD/CNY exchange rate selling price was around 7.31. This price translates to an external selling price of approximately 4,141 yuan/mt at major domestic ports, which is RMB 760 per tonne higher than domestic alumina prices. The alumina import window remains closed.
Summary: Recently, domestic spot alumina prices have stabilized, mainly due to increased demand for alumina exports and delivery warehouse transfers, which have supported alumina prices. In the short term, spot alumina prices in some regions have rebounded slightly. However, overseas alumina prices have declined, and the export window is essentially closed. Delivery warehouse transfers cannot provide sustained demand, and the market expects some new alumina capacity to be gradually commissioned. In the medium and long term, spot alumina prices will remain under pressure. In the short term, spot alumina prices may enter a phase of fluctuation and adjustment. Continuous attention should be paid to the profitability of alumina exports and changes in bauxite prices.
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