According to SMM data, China's metallurgical-grade alumina production in March 2025 (31 days) increased by 8.86 per cent M-o-M and 11.32 per cent Y-o-Y. As of the end of March, China's metallurgical-grade alumina existing capacity was around 105.02 million tonnes, with actual operating capacity decreasing by 1.68 per cent M-o-M and an operating rate of 84.64 per cent.
During the month, the operating capacity of domestic alumina refineries varied, but overall, national metallurgical-grade alumina operating capacity decreased M-o-M. In terms of new capacity, some commissioned capacities in Guangxi have started production; in terms of production cuts, as alumina prices continued to decline while ore prices remained high, some alumina producers have chosen to conduct maintenance under loss pressure, while some alumina companies have reduced production, leading to a decline in operating rates. Although recent alumina operating capacity has decreased, alumina supply still exceeds demand from domestic aluminium production. Additionally, due to the decline in overseas alumina prices, the domestic alumina export window has closed, and except for some alumina flows to Russia under long-term contracts, alumina export demand is limited. In the short term, the spot market for alumina may maintain a relatively loose pattern, and spot prices may continue to fluctuate downward.
April forecast: Currently, many alumina refineries have reported maintenance plans for April, and some alumina refineries have adjusted their operating capacity. Additionally, the planned commissioning time for new capacities in Guangxi and Hebei is approaching, but the specific commissioning time is undecided, and SMM will continue to track this. Overall, domestic metallurgical-grade alumina operating capacity in April may further decrease, with an expected domestic metallurgical-grade alumina operating capacity of 87.23 million tonne per year. Continued attention should be paid to changes in alumina capacity and alumina import and export situations.
Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle with its original information without any modifications or edits to the core subject/data.
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