The price of alumina and aluminium ingots go the opposite way for 4 consecutive days on SMM

As the week progresses, on Thursday, November 14, the alumina price surge trend, witnessed since the initial days of September, continues its upward climb in a similar ratio.

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Alumina pricing

Today, the nearly colourless crystalline substance stood at RMB 5,567 per tonne (averaged), which was a massive 85 per cent hike Y-o-Y (price on November 14, 2023 stood at RMB 3,006 per tonne). The W-o-W inflation is not merely marginal at all, with a 4.4 per cent rise in just a week's span.

The provincial prices are almost to reach 6000 bucks, wherein Lianyungang and Bayuquan witnessed alumina's average cost of RMB 5,950 per tonne (50 RMB additional to the previous day's price) and a range between RMB 5,910 and 5,990 per tonne on Thursday. Two other provinces, Guangxi and Guizhou, saw similar average prices of alumina of RMB 5,525 per tonne (+25). These two provinces had the lowest price listed of alumina among all the provinces in China. Alumina in Shandong cost from RMB 5,500 to RMB 5,600 per tonne (average RMB 5,550 per tonne) and in Henan, costed from RMB 5,450 to RMB 5,670

5,560 per tonne (average RMB 5,560 per tonne). As for Shanxi, the liosted price ranged from RMB 5,550 to RMB 5,700 per tonne with an average of RMB 5,625 per tonne.

Primary aluminium ingot

On the other hand, on November 14, the average A00 aluminium ingot pricing declined in most provinces, with prices depicted as: RMB 20,550 per tonne (-200) in Gongyi, RMB 20,560 per tonne (-170) in Foshan, RMB 20,630 per tonne (-190) in Wuxi, RMB 20,640 per tonne (-200) in Hangzhou, RMB 20,820 per tonne (-280) in Chongqing, RMB 20,670 per tonne (-120) in Shenyang, RMB 20,740 per tonne (-150) in Tianjin and RMB 20,590 per tonne (-300) in Linyi. The price range in the provinces varied between RMB 20,530 per tonne to RMB 20,830 per tonne.

The average price of A00aluminium ingot has been displayed as RMB 20,640 per tonne (averaged) with a loss of RMB 200 from yesterday's pricde.

The high-purity aluminium ingot prices of 99.99 per cent and 99.96 per cent variants are RMB 27,700 per tonne (range RMB 27,300-28,100 per tonne) and RMB 28,700 per tonne (range RMB 28,300-29,100 per tonne) with a 200 bucks drop to yesterday's price. As for the low-carbon aluminium ingot pricing, the range listed on SMM showed RMB 21,823-21,823 per tonne, with an average of RMB 21,823 per tonne (-273).

Secondary aluminium alloy ingot

As for aluminium alloys, ADC12 ranged from RMB 20,800 to RMB 21,000 per tonne (the rate dipped RMB 100, with a final Thursday average of RMB 20,900 per tonne), and A356 ranged from RMB 20,900 to RMB 21,300 per tonne with an average of RMB 21,100 per tonne dipping a further RMB 200 as compared to the previous day. The other two variants A380 and A360 stooped to an average price of RMB 21,900 per tonne and RMB 21,250 per tonne, respectively. All the secondary aluminium ingots lost value alike primary ingots on thurday market.

The back story

This is the third time in the present calendar year that the nation's alumina price has seen volatility wherein first in January it was due to Guinea's bauxite supply disruptions and second in May due to Rio Tinto's declaration of force majeure on third-party shipments from its alumina refineries in Queensland due to limited gas supplies. China encounters hardships again at present as Guinea's bauxite supply is under an embargo among other world crises.

Further, environmental checks have rendered multiple domestic bauxite mines to discontinue operations early in the year, which has curbed alumina production boost.

The hyper-increase in aluminium production in most Chinese provinces inspite of the country's alumina import/production concern raises the question of whether the businesses have prepared ahead of the demand or have a plan for the potential surplus in the upcoming calendar year (2025).