Weekly alumina operating rate declines, domestic spot alumina prices continue to fall

Futures market: In the night session, the most-traded alumina 2505 contract opened at RMB 3,137 per tonne, with a high of RMB 3,147 per tonne and a low of RMB 3,121 per tonne, finally closing at RMB 3,125 per tonne, down RMB 22 per tonne or 0.69 per cent. Open interest stood at 217,000 lots.

Ore market: As of March 13, the SMM imported bauxite index was USD 93.39 per tonne, flat from the previous trading day. The SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average price was USD 91 per tonne, flat from the previous trading day. The SMM Australian low-temperature bauxite CIF average price was USD 87 per tonne, flat from the previous trading day. The SMM Australian high-temperature bauxite CIF average price was USD 81 per tonne, also flat from the previous trading day.

Spot Alumina: On Thursday, 11,000 tonnes of spot alumina was traded in Henan at transaction prices of RMB 3,230-3,260 per tonne, while 2,000 tonnes was traded in Shanxi at a transaction price of RMB 3,220 per tonne.

Industry Dynamics:

1. SMM weekly aluminium production: According to SMM, as of this Thursday (March 6-13), the national operating capacity of aluminium stood at around 43.78 million tonnes per year, with an operating rate of 95.6 per cent. Recent aluminium production resumption has pushed operating capacity higher. However, due to the time required to reach full production, there was no significant contribution to this week's aluminium production, which stood at around 857,000 tonnes, up 0.06 per cent W-o-W.
2. SMM weekly alumina production: According to SMM, as of this Thursday (March 6-13), the national weekly production of metallurgical-grade alumina was 1.693 million tonnes, down 0.94 per cent W-o-W, mainly due to production cuts at some alumina refineries in Shanxi and Shandong.
3. SMM weekly alumina production dynamics: According to SMM data, as of this Thursday, the total installed capacity of metallurgical-grade alumina in China was 105.02 million tonnes per year, flat WoW. The total operating capacity was 88.26 million tonnes per year, down 860,000 tonnes W-o-W. The national weekly operating rate of alumina decreased by 0.8 percentage points WoW to 84.04 per cent.
4. Alumina Port Inventory: According to SMM statistics on March 13, domestic port inventories of alumina totalled 45,000 tonnes, up 2,000 tonnes from the previous week.

Spot-futures price spread daily report: According to SMM data, on March 13, the SMM alumina index showed a premium of 182 per tonne against the most-traded contract's latest transaction price at 11:30.

Warrant Daily Report: On March 13, the total registered warrants for alumina increased by 4,483 tonnes from the previous trading day to 212,000 tonnes. In Shandong, the total registered warrants remained flat at 45,130 mt. In Henan, the total registered warrants were unchanged at 28,200 tonnes. In Guangxi, the total registered warrants were also flat at 20,100 tonnes. In Gansu, the total registered warrants decreased by 1,800 tonnes to 16,500 tonnes. In Xinjiang, the total registered warrants increased by 6,283 tonnes to 142,600 tonnes.

Overseas market: As of March 13, 2025, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was USD 425 per tonne, with an ocean freight rate of USD 20.55 per tonne. The USD/CNY exchange rate selling price was around 7.26. This price translates to an external selling price of approximately RMB 3,738 per tonne at major domestic ports, RMB 413 per tonne higher than domestic alumina prices. The alumina import window remains closed. On the export side, based on the latest spot transaction prices in Shandong, the domestic alumina export cost is estimated at around USD 470 per tonne, lower than overseas spot alumina prices, keeping the export window closed.

Summary: Recently, the tug-of-war between buyers and sellers in the alumina market has continued. The spot alumina market saw sporadic transactions, with transaction prices showing a further slight decline, centring around RMB 3,200-3,300 per tonne. The domestic alumina export window remains closed, and the total registered warrants in alumina delivery warehouses have exceeded 200,000 tonnes.

Subsequent alumina exports and transfers to delivery warehouses are unlikely to provide sustained demand. Fundamentals side, in the short term, alumina operating capacity is expected to fluctuate, with no significant decline anticipated. This week, the national total operating capacity of alumina was 88.26 million tonnes. The alumina market remains in a slight surplus, and spot alumina prices are likely to fluctuate downward in the short term.

Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle in its original form without any modifications or edits to the information.