Aluminium alloy ingot prices take a wild turn, with record highs in the US and slumping in China

It’s a tale of two markets, wherein aluminium alloy ingot prices in China are stuck in the mud owing to downsized demand, and the US is witnessing an explosive spike, fuelled by tariffs and supply strains. Let’s break down what’s happening on the opposite sides of the globe.

China is stuck in a demand drought

In late February 2025, aluminium alloy ingot prices in China dipped by 0.4 per cent, dragged down by one relentless factor — weak demand. Market participants report that even though work has resumed across upstream and downstream sectors, overall demand remains painfully soft. The result? A glut in supply coupled with meek demand from across the nation’s businesses ultimately kept the prices firmly range-bound.

According to Shanghai Metals Market data, On February 18, secondary aluminium alloy prices continued their mild upward trend, with SMM A00 aluminium prices rising by RMB 20 per tonne from the previous trading day to RMB 20,550 per tonne, while secondary aluminium prices remained stable. Aluminium prices saw a slight increase, but secondary aluminium manufacturers mainly maintained stable quotes, with a few reducing prices by RMB 50-100 per tonne against the trend. Secondary aluminium plant operating rates have returned to normal, with increased market supply. However, weak downstream demand, reduced enterprise orders, and accumulating social and production site inventory have limited the momentum for price increases.

In the short term, ADC12 prices are expected to continue fluctuating within a limited range, with upward potential constrained by supply pressures and the slow recovery in demand. Conversely, downside support is provided by aluminium scrap costs. It is important to closely monitor recent trends in raw material circulation and the recovery of end-use consumption.

The market prices for aluminium scrap have also fluctuated within a stable range. Baled UBC aluminium scrap is quoted at RMB 14,950-15,800 per tonne (excluding tax), while shredded aluminium tense scrap is priced at RMB 16,350-17,950 per tonne (liquid aluminium, excluding tax). In the short term, the resumption of production of aluminium scrap in both the upstream and downstream sectors has alleviated procurement pressures.

Oversupply has anchored aluminium alloy ingot prices, and while rising scrap costs have somewhat cushioned further drops, it’s clear that the market isn’t poised for any substantial bounce-back. The cautious sentiment among traders reflects a market caught between expanding supply and a downstream sector still struggling to regain its footing.