Navigating uncertainty: US elections, economic shifts, and the aluminium industry

AL Circle recently had the privilege of attending the presentation of Mr Uday Patel, Senior Research Manager for Metals and Mining – Aluminium, Wood Mackenzie, at the ICSOBA 2024 conference in Lyon, France. This enlightening session provided valuable insights into the current challenges facing the aluminium industry, as well as the potential outlook that could reshape its future. His expertise provided a comprehensive understanding of the dynamic landscape, highlighting the critical factors influencing market trends and the implications for stakeholders across the industry. This write-up is derived from the macroeconomic outlook based on Wood Mackenzie’s Q3 analysis, which Mr Uday Patel shared during his presentation.

As the global economy begins to recover from the shocks of recent years, signs of both resilience and uncertainty emerge across sectors. Despite this momentum, the US economy is on the brink of a cyclical slowdown, with potential recession risks underscored by the approaching US elections and their implications for trade, fiscal, and foreign policy. Given these dynamics, the aluminium industry is at a crucial juncture, influenced by internal demand factors and broader geopolitical developments.

Economic recovery amid persistent slumps