Bauxite Import Analysis: Non-mainstream ore monthly import volume hits a five-year high again; imported ore volume rebounds 36.7% m-o-m

According to the General Administration of Customs of China, China imported 14.976 million mt of bauxite in December 2024, up 21.9 per cent M-o-M and up 26.2 per cent Y-o-Y. From January to December 2024, China’s cumulative bauxite imports reached 158.767 million mt, up 12.3 per cent Y-o-Y.

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(HS code: 26060000)

By country

In December, China imported 10.386 million tonnes from Guinea (up 36.7 per cent M-o-M, up 26.3 per cent Y-o-Y), 3.389 million tonnes from Australia (down 8.29 per cent M-o-M, up 6.93 per cent Y-o-Y), 413,000 tonnes from Turkey, 227,000 tonnes from Laos, 168,000 tonnes from Ghana, 162,000 tonnes from the Republic of Côte d'Ivoire, 110,000 tonnes from Malaysia, 56,000 tonnes from Montenegro, 33,000 tonnes from Brazil, and 28,000 tonnes from India.

From January to December, China’s cumulative bauxite imports from Guinea totalled 110.207 million tonnes, accounting for 69.41 per cent of total imports, up 11.2 per cent Y-o-Y; imports from Australia totalled 39.884 million tonnes, accounting for 25.12 per cent of total imports, up 15.4 per cent Y-o-Y. Non-mainstream bauxite imports totalled 8.676 million tonnes, accounting for 5.46 per cent of total imports, an increase of 47.9 per cent compared to 2023 non-mainstream bauxite imports (excluding Indonesian imports).

Regarding mainstream bauxite import sources

In December, the impact of Guinea’s rainy season on China’s bauxite imports was lifted, and import volumes rebounded significantly, with both YoY and MoM growth rates exceeding 20 per cent. In November-December 2024, Guinea’s weekly average bauxite shipment volumes reached 3.1 million tonnes per week and 3.25 million tonnes per week, respectively, further increasing from the weekly average shipment volume of 2.91 million tonnes per week in October. It is expected that China’s total bauxite imports from Guinea will increase again in January 2025.

In December, China’s total bauxite imports from Australia decreased, mainly due to the gradual arrival of Australia’s rainy season, with its impact gradually becoming evident. In January 2025, Australian bauxite supply is expected to decline further, but the overall reduction will be relatively limited.

Overall, bauxite imports in January 2025 may see a slight increase. According to weekly bauxite port arrival data, the weekly average port arrivals of bauxite at Chinese ports in the first three weeks of January 2025 were 3.76 million tonnes per week, an increase of 330,000 tonnes per week compared to the weekly average of 3.43 million tonnes per week in December.

Regarding non-mainstream bauxite import sources

In December 2024, China imported bauxite from countries such as Turkey, Laos, Ghana, the Republic of Côte d'Ivoire, Malaysia, Montenegro, Brazil, India, and Pakistan, with a total import volume of 1.201 million tonnes, accounting for 8.0 per cent of December’s total imports, setting a new five-year high for non-mainstream bauxite import volumes.

SMM comments

As of January 20, domestic alumina operating capacity remained fluctuating at highs. Coupled with the raw material stockpiling demand for newly commissioned alumina capacity, bauxite demand remained robust. Although bauxite import supply in January is expected to increase to some extent, the bauxite spot market may not experience a significant surplus due to strong demand. However, the accelerated decline in spot alumina prices continues to exert some pressure on bauxite prices, making it difficult for imported bauxite to reach previous peak transaction prices in the short term.

News source: SMM