Import losses widen, net imports of primary aluminium plunged Y-o-Y in January-February

Primary aluminium imports: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, domestic primary aluminium imports in January 2025 were approximately 161,000 tonnes, almost flat M-o-M and down 34.8 per cent Y-o-Y; in February, imports were about 200,000 tonnes, up 24.0 per cent M-o-M and down 10.7 per cent Y-o-Y. The total cumulative imports for January-February 2025 were around 362,000 tonnes, down 23.4 per cent Y-o-Y.

Primary aluminium exports: According to data from the General Administration of Customs, domestic primary aluminium exports in January 2025 were approximately 8,000 tonnes, down 33.4 per cent M-o-M and up 814.8 per cent Y-o-Y; in February, exports were about 3,000 tonnes, down 59 per cent MoM and up YoY. The total cumulative exports for January-February 2025 were around 12,000 tonnes, up 1,116.9 per cent Y-o-Y.

Net primary aluminium imports: The cumulative net imports of primary aluminium for January-February 2025 were approximately 349,800 tonnes, down 25.7 per cent Y-o-Y. (The above import and export data are based on HS codes 76011090 and 76011010)

From the perspective of import sources, the main countries and regions of origin for domestic primary aluminium imports in January-February 2025 were the Russian Federation, China, India, Indonesia, Malaysia, and others. Among these, the total imports from Russia in January-February were about 313,300 tonnes, up 13.1 per cent Y-o-Y, accounting for 87 per cent of the total imports for January-February. Additionally, the imports from China in January-February were about 8,600 tonnes, down 63.3 per cent YoY.

This portion mainly consisted of Chinese alumina exported to Russia, processed into aluminium ingots, and then re-imported to the Chinese market. In terms of the origin of the ingots, it was still primarily Russian aluminium. Therefore, the total imports from Russian sources in January-February reached 321,900 tonnes, accounting for 89 per cent of the total domestic primary aluminium imports. Currently, overseas primary aluminium imports are in a loss state, and the import losses are widening. Notably, some non-major import sources increased in January-February 2025, such as Qatar and Austria.

From the perspective of trade modes: In terms of the trade modes for primary aluminium imports in January-February, the import losses widened, and suppliers' willingness to clear customs and send to the Chinese market decreased. Most imports were under long-term contracts, with the cumulative total imports significantly down 23.4 per cent Y-o-Y.

SMM Brief Comment: The current aluminium prices still maintain an LME outperforms SHFE trend, with the domestic import window closed and import losses fluctuating around RMB 2,600 per tonne. Overseas suppliers' willingness to clear customs and send to China has decreased. SMM expects that in March 2025, domestic primary aluminium imports will mainly be under long-term contracts, and it will be difficult to see an increase in net imports.

Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle in its original form without any modifications or edits to the information.