According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s aggregated aluminium production through January and February 2025 amounted to 7.32 million tonnes, reflecting about 3 per cent growth year-on-year from 7.1 million tonnes.
The higher Y-o-Y output could be attributed to the improved profitability of aluminium smelters in China, owing to contracted alumina prices, thanks to the ease of supply constraints. The most active alumina contract (SAOc1) on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell over the first two months this year, ending at RMB 3,363 (USD464.81) per tonne as of February 28, down by 28 per cent from a peak of RMB 4,700 (USD 649.36) per tonne on January 2.
There is a further projection of China’s primary aluminium ingot price hike through the upcoming months, further supporting the profitability of smelters. An anticipated demand-production gap due to a fast-paced demand rise in the backdrop of limited growth opportunities in domestic aluminium production capped at 45 million tonnes is why China’s aluminium prices are projected to grow.
According to the Shanghai Metals Market, growing operating capacity, driven by the resumption of production at previously curtailed enterprises and the activation of replacement projects following the recovery of aluminium profits, also ramped up China’s aluminium production in January and February.
As per SMM’s data, China’s aluminium capacity as of February 2025 was approximately 45.81 million tonnes, while operating capacity amounted to around 43.64 million tonnes. Â
China’s production of ten nonferrous metals, including copper, aluminium, lead, zinc, and nickel, rose 1.4 per cent to 12.94 million tonnes during the first two months of 2025.
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