Futures market: During the night session, the most-traded alumina 2505 contract opened at RMB 3,063 per tonne, reached a high of RMB 3,118 per tonne, a low of RMB 3,063 per tonne, and closed at RMB 3,098 per tonne, up RMB 38 per tonne, a gain of 1.23 per cent, with open interest at 204,000 lots.
Ore side: As of March 25, the SMM imported bauxite index stood at USD 93.16 per tonne, down USD 0.17 per tonne from the previous trading day, mainly due to a decline in caustic soda prices in Shandong. The SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average was USD 91 per tonne, unchanged from the previous day. The SMM Australia low-temperature bauxite CIF average was USD 87 per tonne, unchanged from the previous day. The SMM Australia high-temperature bauxite CIF average was USD 81 per tonne, unchanged from the previous day.
Industry news: Arrow Minerals disclosed 185 million tonnes of high-grade bauxite resources at its Niagara project in Guinea. On March 25, 2025, Arrow Minerals announced that the initial resource estimate for its Niagara bauxite project in Guinea reached 185 million tonnes, with an alumina grade of 42.3 per cent and low silicon content, indicating high-quality development potential. The project is close to existing railway infrastructure, facilitating export transportation. Arrow is expected to commence development in 2025 and is currently advancing a preliminary scoping study for a low-capital startup plan. With sufficient funding and a management team experienced in global mining development, the company is transitioning from an exploration-focused to a development-focused entity, capitalizing on the high-price environment for bauxite in Guinea.
Spot-futures price spread report: According to SMM data, on March 25, the SMM alumina index was at a premium of RMB 78 per tonne against the latest transaction price of the most-traded contract at 11:30 am.
Warrant report: On March 25, the total registered alumina warrants increased by 1,812 tonnes to 279,300 tonnes compared to the previous trading day. The total registered alumina warrants in Shandong remained unchanged at 4,513 tonnes. The total registered alumina warrants in Henan decreased by 600 tonnes to 26,700 tonnes. The total registered alumina warrants in Guangxi remained unchanged at 49,800 tonnes. The total registered alumina warrants in Gansu remained unchanged at 22,500 tonnes. The total registered alumina warrants in Xinjiang increased by 2,412 tonnes to 175,700 tonnes.
Overseas market: As of March 25, 2025, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was USD 400 per tonne, with an ocean freight rate of USD 21.20 per tonne. The USD/CNY exchange rate selling price was around 7.28, translating to a domestic mainstream port selling price of approximately RMB 3,544 per tonne, which is RMB 400 per tonne higher than the domestic alumina price, keeping the alumina import window closed. On the export side, based on the latest spot alumina transaction price in Shandong, the domestic alumina export cost is around USD 450 per tonne, lower than the overseas spot alumina price, keeping the export window closed.
Summary: The weekly operating rate of alumina has recently declined. As of last Thursday, according to SMM data, the national total operating capacity of metallurgical alumina decreased to 88.01 million tonnes per year, but the reduction was limited. According to SMM data, as of last Thursday, the domestic total operating capacity of aluminium was 43.84 tonnes per year, translating to an alumina demand operating capacity of around 84.4 million tonnes per year. Even considering alumina net exports, the fundamentals still indicate a loose supply situation. In the short term, alumina prices are expected to remain under pressure. Subsequent attention should be paid to changes in alumina operating capacity.
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