Futures Market: In the overnight session, the most-traded alumina 2505 futures contract opened at RMB 3,110 per tonne, reached a high of RMB 3,125 per tonne, a low of RMB 3,103 per tonne, and closed at RMB 3,119 per tonne, up 0.29 per cent. Open interest stood at 217,000 lots, an increase of 398 lots. Spot Alumina Prices: On March 17, SMM alumina was quoted at RMB 3,278 per tonne, down RMB 28 per tonne from the previous trading day.
Bauxite: As of March 17, the SMM imported bauxite index stood at USD 93.39 per tonne, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average price was USD 91 per tonne, also unchanged, while the SMM Australia bauxite CIF average price was USD 87 per tonne, remaining flat as well.
Industry News:
1. China Nonferrous Metal Industry's Sixth Metallurgical Construction Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Sixth Metallurgical") successfully won the tender for four core sections of the ecological aluminium industry chain project at Fangchenggang Port in Guangxi, with a contract value of approximately RMB 250 million. The project, with an annual alumina production capacity of 2.4 million tonnes and supporting facilities, is a key component of the New Western Land-Sea Corridor. Fangchenggang Zhongsilk New Material Technology Co., Ltd. is the construction unit responsible for the project, which adopts the internationally advanced high-low temperature switching Bayer process. The plan includes building two alumina production lines, each with an annual capacity of 1.2 million tonnes, along with a red mud comprehensive utilisation system.
2. Spot alumina: On Monday, 5,000 tonnes of alumina was transacted in Guizhou at a price of RMB 3,250 per tonne. In Xinjiang, aluminium smelters tendered for alumina procurement, with transaction prices at RMB 3,450 per tonne delivered to Xinjiang.
Spot-futures price spread daily report: According to SMM data, on March 17, the SMM alumina index showed a premium of RMB 169 per tonne against the most-traded contract's latest transaction price at 11:30.
Warrant daily report: On March 17, the total registered warrants for alumina increased by 2.46 tonnes from the previous trading day to 282,000 tonnes. In Shandong, the total registered warrants remained unchanged at 4,513 tonnes. In Henan, the total registered warrants were also unchanged at 30,600 tonnes. In Guangxi, the total registered warrants stayed flat at 4,980 tonnes. In Gansu, the total registered warrants increased by 7,459 tonnes to 2,400 tonnes. In Xinjiang, the total registered warrants rose by 17,153 tonnes to 1,300 tonnes.
Overseas market: As of March 17, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was USD 425 per tonne, with ocean freight rates at $20.55/mt. The USD/CNY exchange rate selling price was around 7.26. This price translates to an external selling price of approximately 3,735 yuan/mt at major domestic ports, which is 457 yuan/mt higher than domestic alumina prices. The alumina import window remains closed.
Summary: Recently, the tug-of-war between buyers and sellers in the alumina market continues. The spot alumina market has seen sporadic transactions, with transaction prices experiencing a slight further decline, centering around RMB 3,200-3,300 per tonne. The domestic alumina export window remains closed, and the total registered warrants in alumina futures delivery warehouses have exceeded 280,000 tonnes. Subsequent alumina exports and transfers to delivery warehouses may struggle to provide sustained demand. Fundamentals side, in the short term, alumina operating capacity is expected to see both increases and decreases, with no significant decline anticipated in total operating capacity. The alumina market is likely to maintain a slight surplus, and spot alumina prices are expected to fluctuate downward in the short term.
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