Overseas alumina transaction prices drop again, domestic spot transactions remain sluggish

Futures Market: During the night session, the most-traded alumina 2505 contract opened at RMB 3,192 per tonne, reached a high of RMB 3,225 per tonne and a low of RMB 3,192 per tonne, and finally closed at RMB 3,196 per tonne, up RMB 2 per tonne or 0.07 per cent. Open interest stood at 201,000 lots.

Ore Market: As of March 11, the SMM imported bauxite index was reported at USD 94.74 per tonne, unchanged from the previous trading day. The SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average price was USD 93 per tonne, also unchanged, while the SMM Australia bauxite CIF average price was USD 91 per tonne, remaining flat as well.

Spot Alumina: On Tuesday, 2,000 tonnes of alumina was traded in Shandong at a transaction price of RMB 3,265 per tonne.

Industry News:

(1) Hydro Energi AS signed a long-term power purchase agreement (PPA) with NTE to supply a total of 660 GWh of electricity during 2027–2029. The agreement will be integrated into Hydro Energy's overall power portfolio, which includes 9.4 TWh of annual self-generated power and approximately 10 TWh of long-term contracted supply.

The contract delivery period is from January 1, 2027, to December 31, 2029, covering the NO3 price zone (the third price area in the Norwegian power market, where electricity prices may vary due to supply-demand relationships, power grid conditions, etc.). As a key player in the Nordic power market, Hydro Energy is responsible for procuring electricity for Hydro's aluminium production. Renewable energy is critical to its aluminium production, enabling a carbon footprint approximately 75 per cent lower than the global average and supporting the company's technological roadmap to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050.

(2) Overseas Alumina Transactions: On March 10, 30,000 tonnes of alumina was traded at USD 480 per tonne FOB Vila Do Conde, Brazil, with shipment scheduled for late March to early April.

(3) Overseas Alumina Transactions: On March 11, 35,000 tonnes of alumina was traded at USD 440 per tonne FOB Kendawangan, Indonesia, with shipment scheduled for early April.

Spot-Futures Price Spread Daily Report: According to SMM data, on March 11, the SMM alumina index showed a premium of RMB 172 per tonne against the most-traded contract's latest transaction price at 11:30.

Warehouse Warrant Daily Report: On March 11, the total registered warehouse warrants for alumina increased by 10,800 tonnes from the previous trading day to 199,100 tonnes. In Shandong, the total registered warehouse warrants remained unchanged at 4,513 mt. In Henan, the total registered warehouse warrants increased by 10,500 tonnes to 24,900 tonnes. In Guangxi, the total registered warehouse warrants remained unchanged at 20,100 tonnes. In Gansu, the total registered warehouse warrants increased by 301 tonnes to 18,300 tonnes. In Xinjiang, the total registered warehouse warrants remained unchanged at 131,200 tonnes.

Overseas Market: As of March 11, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was USD 472 per tonne, with ocean freight rates at USD 20.05 per tonne. The USD/CNY exchange rate selling price was around 7.26. This price translates to an external selling price of approximately RMB 4,114 per tonne at major domestic ports, RMB 757 per tonne higher than domestic alumina prices. The alumina import window remains closed. Based on SMM Shandong alumina prices and considering transportation and port miscellaneous fees, the domestic alumina export cost is approximately USD 480 per tonne, and the domestic alumina export window remains closed.

Summary: Recently, the tug-of-war between buyers and sellers in the alumina market has continued, with sluggish spot transactions and stable spot prices. Overseas alumina transaction prices have further declined, and the domestic alumina export window remains closed, making it unlikely for alumina exports to provide sustained demand. On the fundamentals side, no large-scale production cuts have been reported for operating alumina capacity, and the alumina market remains in a slight surplus. In the short term, spot alumina prices are expected to fluctuate downward.

Note: This article has been issued by SMM and has been published by AL Circle in its original form without any modifications or edits to the information.