Here’s the other side of the story: where will Canada redirect its 3.3 million tonnes of aluminium exports with US tariffs in effect?

February 4, 2025 – today is the day the United States' 25 per cent additional import tariffs on Canada, Mexico and 10 per cent on China are coming into effect. Already, the tariffs, even before being implemented, have brought several opinions from industry leaders on possible changes in market dynamics for the United States and the rest of the world.

Jorge Eduardo Dyszel, a risk management consultant and expert in base metals and the London Metal Exchange, has weighed in on the situation. He suggests the United States importers will either need to pay the 25 per cent tariff or seek alternative sources for commodities like aluminium. He also warns that a reduced supply of aluminium could lead to higher premiums for US buyers, potentially resulting in a contango curve—an upward-sloping price trend where futures prices exceed spot prices.

In this situation, it is essential to know the other side of the story that how Canada plans to respond to a 25 per cent US tariff.  As the largest supplier of aluminium to the US, accounting for over 55 per cent of total imports, Canada faces a critical decision. Will it continue supplying aluminium to the US, and if so, how will it navigate the tariff? Or alternatively, will it redirect its exports to other countries?