Recap 2018: The year saw unprecedented growth in EVs boosting aluminium demand

There were more than 3.5 million passenger electric vehicles (EVs) sold globally and about 421,000 electric buses at the end of June 2018, bringing the total number of EVs sold to 3.97 million, according to a new report from Bloomberg New Energy Finance. The use of EV in passenger cars and public transport drove demand for aluminium rolling sheets and extrusions. The production of new energy vehicles also fuelled the demand for aluminium alloy not only in China but also all around the globe.

Aluminium demand for EVs in 2018 (without taking into account charging infrastructure) is expected to be around 250,000 tonnes, assuming average aluminium content of around 250 kg per vehicle, analysts estimated. The content of rolled and extruded aluminium products in EVs is expected to remain significantly higher in 2018. Some of the developments, projections and announcements made in 2018 were:

Aluminium demand from EVs will increase 10-fold from 2017 growing up to 10 million tonnes by 2030, according to CRU. The usage of aluminium automotive body part components made of extrusions and rolled products will be higher in comparison with the present day vehicles with internal combustion engines. EVs will specifically boost primary aluminium demand while imposing a limit on aluminium scrap demand, CRU noted.

Plug-in hybrid and full battery electric vehicles use 25-27% more aluminium than the typical internal combustion engine car today. This assumes 160 kg (353 lbs) of aluminium per vehicle as a baseline for aluminium content in internal combustion engines.

As per forecast global battery-powered electric vehicle (BEV), plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) and hybrid electric vehicle (HEV) sales will increase to 42 million units by 2030. From the current 4 per cent market share, EVs will go on to account for approximately 30 per cent of the global market by 2030. 

Electric vehicles in China

China, being the fastest growing auto market, presents a massive growth opportunity for Tesla and rivals such as BMW AG and Daimler AG. Sales of New-Energy Vehicles -- a category that includes battery-powered, plug-in hybrid and fuel-cell vehicles, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, reached 777,000 units in 2017 and could surpass 1 million in 2018.

The government’s target is 7 million vehicles a year by 2025. As per the estimate by market participants, production and sales of NEVs would reach compound annual growth rates (CAGR) of above 50 per cent within the next five years.

The Chinese government also announced plans to introduce a carbon credit program in 2019 to encourage automakers to ramp up EV output. The government is looking at electric vehicles as a means to control pollution and to utilize its metal overcapacity, especially aluminium. 

China is expected to continue to be the largest EV market in the world through 2040. Aluminium is still expected to benefit greatly from the electric and hybrid vehicle revolution, especially from hybrids as they boast two engines and automakers as well as aluminium part makers are leveraging on the growth

Some other highlights of the year

Novelis supplied premium aluminium to the new London Electric Taxi. The company’s lightweight aluminium sheet is incorporated into the design of the TX to help reduce weight and increase the driving range.

A joint study that Hydro carried out with Forschungsgesellschaft Kraftfahrwesen mbH in Aachen (fka) and School of Design Pforzheim, related to aluminium use in urban vehicle concepts demonstrated aluminium’s strong position in vehicles of the future.

Novelis supplied its premium Novelis Advanz™ aluminium to the all-electric Jaguar I-PACE. This new addition to the Jaguar PACE family and the car maker's first all-electric vehicle features a strong and stiff lightweight aluminium construction to reduce weight and increase battery range up to 470km while delivering superior driving dynamics and safety.

Ashok Leyland Limited signed a Letter of Intent (LoI) with Israeli firm Phinergy to use their aluminium air batteries for electric CVs in India. Phinergy’s technological expertise in aluminium air batteries is expected to benefit ALL in their electric CV strategies. 

NIO Inc. launched the ES6 high-performance long-range electric SUV during the annual NIO Day 2018 in Shanghai. The ES6 comes with high-strength aluminium & carbon fiber reinforced plastics (CFRP) hybrid structure.

Turkish automaker Oyak Renault announced it would invest more than 100 million euro (US$115 million) for setting up an aluminium injection plant in north-western Turkey for new generation hybrid cars.

Volkswagen Group started construction of its electric vehicles plant in a joint venture with SAIC Motor Corp. in Shanghai.  The US$2.5 billion factory will start production of electric vehicles based on VW’s MEB platform in 2020.

Tesla Inc. signed a preliminary agreement with Shanghai Government to build its second auto plant other than its U.S. assembly plant, the Shanghai government said in statement. The electric-car maker takes a big step in overseas expansion with a planned capacity of 500,000 vehicles a year for the proposed plant.

Sanjeev Gupta's GFG Alliance announced it will build EV plants as part of his venture into the auto supply chain worldwide. GFG Alliance plans to start building Formula 1-inspired electric vehicles in India and Australia early next decade.

Tata Technologies announced a partnership with NIO China for the development of all-aluminium electric car. The association between the two companies commenced with collaborative engineering for NIO’s first electric all-aluminium vehicle, the ES8.NIO intends the ES8 to be its first product for Chinese electric vehicles market.

Akshay Singhal, CEO of nanotechnology start-up Log 9 Materials is conducting trials on his electric car Mahindra e2o Plus to run on water and aluminium. This, according to him can be made possible by using an innovative metal-air battery, developed by Log 9 in the EV. The battery will refuel with water and aluminium, which would give a range of 1,000 km.

According to a report from Navigant Research, sales of global plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) increased by over 40% every year since the launch in 2011 and it is expected to maintain a 38% growth rate in 2020. Regulatory pressure in Europe and China will further promote the development of plug-in electric vehicles

The report also showed that PEV’s expected strong growth in most parts of the world, especially in Europe and Asia, its prospect in the US is uncertain due to potential changes in the country’s fuel efficiency policy and government subsidies in the future.