Starting from mid-December 2024, domestic and international spot alumina prices began to decline successively.
Overseas, the transaction frequency of spot alumina has been moderate in the past two months, with a total of 21 transactions recorded since December 10. Transaction prices have shown a significant downward trend overall. As of February 14, the FOB price of Western Australian alumina dropped to USD 538 per tonne, down USD 272 per tonne from the December 2024 peak of USD 810 per tonne, equivalent to approximately RMB 2,000 per tonne.
Domestically, as of February 14, the SMM alumina index fell to RMB 3,356 per tonne, down RMB 2,413 per tonne from the December 2024 peak. Overall, in the past two months, the decline in overseas alumina prices was less pronounced than domestically, leading to an expansion in alumina import losses and the gradual opening of the domestic alumina export window.
Based on the recent spot transaction price of alumina in northern China at RMB 3,300 per tonne, assuming combined port and miscellaneous fees of around RMB 200 per tonne, the domestic FOB price for alumina exports is approximately RMB 3,500 per tonne, equivalent to about USD 480 per tonne, which is lower than the recent FOB transaction price of Western Australian alumina. From a theoretical perspective, the alumina export window has essentially opened, and further attention is needed on the impact of alumina exports on the domestic alumina market fundamentals.
Source: SMM
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