What does Trump 2.0 mean for China?

Defying predictions of a close race or a delay of days or weeks for the final numbers, Donald Trump has emerged with enough Electoral College votes to take back the job he held 4 years earlier.

His victory speech at 2 in the morning offered little in the way of clues, but as most pundits have explained, there's no evidence that he won't be exactly the same man he was in his first stint.

So it's still too early to say, but if the economy and border security are his first two priorities, then the third will be his call to slap tariffs on foreign countries who trade with the USA. Apart from perhaps Canada, almost no country shouldn't feel a little worried about their exports to America. And up there, at the top of the list, is China.

However, China is also near the top of Trump's laundry list for foreign policy. Presumably, Russia, Ukraine, NATO, the UN and its various agencies, and the conflicts in the Middle East are all awaiting the 78-year-old. Unfortunately, we can't use his first term as an accurate guide for his likely foreign policy, especially regarding China, as his approach to China was muddled and confusing the first time around.

China's exports to the USA run to over US$500 billion. China represents about 15-18 per cent of all countries that sell to the US. On the other hand, the USA sells about 15-20 billion in China. Given the rhetoric in the campaigning, it's hard to imagine that China won't be a major focus, especially with that sort of imbalance.

The gross numbers are too simplistic. Electric vehicle exports from China will come under increasing attention, and that will be compounded by Trump's disdain for the whole technology. Technology sales are already under close scrutiny. There are countless categories to which Chinese exporters will be exposed.

For aluminium, I don't see too much change. The metal is already under considerable tariffs. The more important question is, how are those tariffs benefiting the local aluminium business? Dometic USA producers should use the protections to browse their technology and reduce costs. Will Detroit find a new growth spurt? Will the countless aluminium fabricators gain lots of new business and grow their prosperity? What about companies using aluminium in their solar or wind power products? How will they survive?

The global aluminium industry agrees that the future of our metal is in scrap and recycling. Will Trump 2.0 help or hinder this nascent industry in the US? But that question is a tiny part of a much bigger one - what's the future now for the world's climate change ambitions?

Image credit: AZ Global