Alcoa sees global aluminium deficit of 800 thousand to 1.2 million tonnes in 2019

Alcoa continued to project a global aluminium deficit ranging between 800 thousand and 1.2 million tonnes in comparison to 1.0 million and 1.4 million tonnes projected in Q2 2019. The company lowered its global aluminium demand growth projection for 2019 to a range of -0.6 percent to 0.4 percent from a previous quarter’s estimate between 1.25 percent and 2.25 percent.

“The change is driven by weakening macroeconomic conditions, trade tensions between the US and China, and contracting manufacturing activity, especially in the global automotive sector,” Alcoa said on Wednesday, 16 October 2019.

Alcoa projected a global surplus market for alumina in 2019, ranging between 1 million and 1.8 million tonnes, up from last quarter’s estimate of 500 thousand tonnes to 1.3 million tonnes, driven by faster restarts and expansions in the world ex-China as well as lower alumina demand due to disruptions at several aluminium smelters in China.

The bauxite market is also expected to have a larger surplus in 2019 ranging between 15 million and 19 million tonnes. “The increase is due to higher supply from Guinea, which is partially offset by stronger demand from Chinese inland refineries.”

Alcoa’s reported a net loss of $221 million in Q3 2019 compared with a net loss of $402 million in Q2 2019. Adjusted EBITDA excluding special items dropped to $388 million. Revenue was down 5 per cent to $2.6 billion in Q3 2019.

The company’s 2019 bauxite shipments are expected to range between 47.0 and 48.0 million dry tonnes. Total annual alumina shipments are projected between 13.6 and 13.7 million tonnes with anticipated operational improvements and higher year-on-year production. Aluminium shipments are expected to be between 2.8 and 2.9 million tonnes.