India’s ADC12 aluminium ingot prices remain rangebound W-o-W with marginal decline

Spot prices for ADC12 aluminium alloy ingots (non-OEM) in Delhi NCR and Chennai remained steady week-over-week, with only a slight decline, according to BigMint's latest assessment. In the Delhi-NCR region, ADC12 spot prices were recorded at INR 212,000 per tonne ex-Delhi, matching the domestic Tense scrap prices, which settled at INR 180,000 per tonne ex-Delhi.

Similarly, ADC12 prices were noted at INR 214,500 per tonne in Chennai on an immediate payment basis, excluding GST. Concurrently, casting scrap prices were INR 181,000 per tonne ex-Chennai. The current spread between Tense and ADC12 spot levels is INR 29,000-30,000 per tonne.

Major automaker adjusts ADC12 prices

India's leading automobile manufacturer has set the ADC12 August settlement prices at INR 222,000 per tonne, a slight decrease of INR 1,000 per tonne from the previous month's price of INR 223,000 per tonne. Although OEMs had expected a larger reduction of INR 2,000 to INR 3,000 per tonne for the August settlement, prices have remained resilient with only minor adjustments. This stability is notable despite the decline in raw material and LME aluminium prices.

Meanwhile, three-month LME aluminium prices fell $70 per tonne to $2,413 per tonne compared with the previous week's $2,485 per tonne. According to BigMint's assessment, tense scrap prices from the Middle East, notably the UAE, dipped slightly by $10 per tonne to $1,870 per tonne, while UK-origin Zorba 95/5 was priced at $2,040 per tonne CFR west coast, India. Meanwhile, grades like US Tense 6-7 per cent remained stable, trading at range bound levels of $1,930 per tonne CFR west coast.

Demand for ADC12

Demand for ADC12 from Japan has significantly declined, with buyers showing minimal interest in procurement. Due to ongoing volatility, alloy manufacturers are cautious about aggressive scrap purchases from the import market, opting instead to focus on local procurement for ADC12 production.

In the Indian domestic market, ADC12 demand remains strong, prompting participants to prioritize domestic sales over exports amid uncertain global trade conditions. In the imported raw material segment, availability remains constrained, with the EU observing summer breaks. Buyer demand is subdued, as stocks are deemed sufficient for at least a month, leading to fewer purchase inquiries.

Price of Taint Tabor

Taint Tabor (TT) prices from both the US and UAE have remained high, influenced by reduced TT exports from the US and the establishment of new rolling mills in the country. These factors prompted advance TT purchases and further drove up prices.

TT prices in the US domestic market are currently around $1,960-1,980 per tonne. US suppliers anticipate buyers' prices reaching $2,040-2,050 per tonne, contributing to the ongoing shortage of TT in both the US and UAE.

The last export inquiries from Mundra to Japan were recorded at $2,340-2,350 per tonne CFR Mundra, although current offers are hovering around $2,450 per tonne.

Tense scrap prices

In the domestic market, tense scrap prices have remained stable in both Delhi and Chennai. BigMint's assessment shows domestic tense scrap prices are reported at INR 180,000 per tonne ex-Delhi NCR and INR 181,000 per tonne ex-Chennai. However, tense scrap reportedly trades at INR 1,000-2,000 per tonne discounts.

According to SIAM data, automobile exports from India grew by 15.5 per cent year-over-year in the June quarter (April-June 2024). Total shipments reached 1,192,577 units, up from 1,032,449 units in the same period last year. Specifically, passenger vehicle exports surged by 19 per cent to 180,483 units. Maruti Suzuki India emerged as the top exporter during this period, shipping 69,962 units compared to 62,857 units in Q1 FY'25.

Outlook

ADC12 prices are expected to remain stable within current ranges. Although OEMs anticipated a decrease of INR 2,000 to INR 3,000 per tonne for August settlement prices, the market has shown resilience, with only minor adjustments expected to be absorbed smoothly.

sourced from SteelMint under the content exchange agreement