Alumina price hike ratio takes a step back; aluminium extrusion export drop potent to lead ingot price drop

Alumina prices are still on the rise in the Shanghai Metals Market (SMM). But, after a long wait, the price hike rate has decreased in the past couple of days, sparking hope among aluminium industrial manufacturers, traders and suppliers.

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Alumina pricing: Averaged vs provincial

On Thursday, the alumina's (averaged) price was listed at RMB 5,673 per tonne, which was W-o-W 1.9 per cent additional, whereas last week Thursday's (November 14) price, which was RMB 5,567 per tonne, stood out to be 4.4 per cent more than the prior week's listed price.

Another hopeful trend seen just in a couple of days is the halt to the provincial alumina price hike in the Lianyungang and Bayuquan regions. The average price of alumina towered at RMB 6,050 per tonne (ranging between 6,010 and 6,090 per tonne) with an overall 1.68 per cent W-o-W and 51.25 per cent M-o-M price growth witnessed in such a short span of the time.

In other provinces, alumina (averaged) prices were seen to be listed as RMB 5,650 (+15) per tonne in Shandong, RMB 5,675 (+10) per tonne in Henan, RMB 5,725 (+10) per tonne in Shanxi, RMB 5,630 (+20) per tonne in Guizhou and RMB 5,620 (+10) per tonne in Guangxi.

Primary aluminium ingot pricing

On the other hand, on November 21, the average A00 aluminium ingot pricing declined in most provinces, with prices depicted as RMB 20,630 per tonne (-100) in Gongyi, RMB 20,610 per tonne (-70) in Foshan, RMB 20,730 per tonne (-60) in Tianjin and RMB 20,700 per tonne (-90) in Linyi and RMB 20,700 per tonne (-100) in Wuxi and Hangzhou. However, prices in a couple of regions rose on Thursday to RMB 20,740 per tonne (+240) in Chongqing and RMB 20,740 per tonne (+180) in Shenyang.

China's average price of A00 aluminium ingot has been displayed as RMB 20,700 per tonne (averaged), with a loss of RMB 90 from yesterday's price. Despite some sharp price spikes, a00 aluminium ingot has seen a 0.5 per cent decline in average pricing M-o-M.

The high-purity aluminium ingot prices of 99.99 per cent and 99.96 per cent variants are RMB 27,700 per tonne (range RMB 27,300-28,100 per tonne) and RMB 28,700 per tonne (range RMB 28,300-29,100 per tonne) with a 100 bucks drop to Wednesday's (November 20) price. As for the low-carbon aluminium ingot pricing, the average price listed on SMM showed RMB 21,701 per tonne (-70).

Secondary aluminium ingot pricing

On Thursday's market, most of the aluminium alloy ingots' prices remained unchanged. Only A356 ranged from RMB 21,000 to RMB 21,300 per tonne with an average of RMB 21,150 per tonne, sinking a further RMB 100 as compared to the previous day, and A360 stooped to an average price of RMB 21,300 (-100) per tonne with a range of RMB 21,200 per tonne to RMB 21,400 per tonne.

Extrusion export scenario

According to SMM's report, the nation's aluminium extrusion exports (HS codes 76041010, 76041090, 76042100, 76042910, 76042990) in October 2024 amounted to 88,100 tonnes, down 6.61 per cent M-o-M, but up 14.18 per cent Y-o-Y. Among the top ten provinces for export enrollment in October, Guangdong, Shandong, and Jiangsu stayed put as the leaders, with the first two showing a substantial decline in export volumes. Regarding export destinations, Vietnam ranked first in September, accounting for 8.85 per cent of the total export volume, followed by Malaysia at 5.45 per cent and Australia at 5.29 per cent. Overall, the intensified anti-dumping issues led to a decrease in export orders, causing the October export volume to weaken MoM. On November 15, news of the cancellation of aluminium semis export tax rebates prompted extrusion plants to rush production to meet deadlines, potentially driving up November's aluminium extrusion export volume. However, according to the SMM survey, customised products are challenging to complete in the short term, and companies may incur losses. Additionally, with the subsequent 13 per cent tax cost hype, processing plants are negotiating with overseas clients.