Overview of China's alumina production in February 2025 and March forecast

According to SMM data, China's metallurgical-grade alumina production in February 2025 (28 days) decreased by 8.5 per cent M-o-M but increased by 10.4 per cent Y-o-Y.

As of February 28, China's metallurgical-grade alumina existing capacity was approximately 105.02 million tonnes, with operating capacity increasing by 0.3 per cent M-o-M, and the operating rate at 86.1 per cent. During the month, domestic alumina operating capacity showed mixed changes. On the addition side, previously commissioned capacity in Shandong achieved output, supporting operating capacity and production for the month. On the reduction side, some alumina producers opted for maintenance due to a sharp decline in alumina prices while ore prices remained high, leading to a pullback in operating rates. Currently, no large-scale production cuts are anticipated, and the alumina spot market is expected to remain in surplus in the short term, with prices likely to fluctuate rangebound. Additionally, recent frequent news of domestic alumina exports suggests that China is expected to maintain a net export position.

March Forecast: Many alumina refineries reported adjustments to operating capacity in March. Apart from a capacity replacement project by a Shandong enterprise, most adjustments involve short-term maintenance. Additionally, new capacity in Guangxi is nearing commissioning, though the exact timing remains uncertain. SMM will continue to monitor developments. Domestic metallurgical-grade alumina operating capacity is expected to reach 90.03 million mt/year in March. Despite significant profit declines, the industry has not seen large-scale production cuts, and the market expects some new alumina capacity to gradually come online, easing domestic supply pressure. Continued attention is needed on alumina capacity changes and export demand.