SMM: Total registered volume of alumina warehouse warrants exceeds 100,000 tonnes, spot prices may fluctuate in the short term

Futures Market: During the night session, the most-traded alumina 2505 futures contract opened at RMB 3,347 per tonne, reached a high of RMB 3,385 per tonne, a low of RMB 3,320 per tonne, and closed at RMB 3,366 per tonne, up RMB 19 per tonne or 0.58 per cent, with an open interest of 170,000 lots.

Spot Market: Yesterday, 13,000 tonnes of spot alumina were traded in Guizhou, including 5,000 tonnes at RMB 3,360 per tonne and 3,000 tonnes at RMB 3,465 per tonne.

Ore Market: As of February 26, the SMM imported bauxite index stood at USD 96.34 per tonne, flat compared to the previous trading day. The SMM Guinea bauxite CIF average price was USD 95 per tonne, unchanged from the previous trading day, while the SMM Australian bauxite CIF average price was also USD 95 per tonne, flat compared to the previous trading day.

Industry News:

1. The CEO of Alcoa stated on Tuesday that President Trump's plan to impose a 25% tariff on aluminium imports could result in the loss of approximately 100,000 jobs in the US.
2. On February 24, 2025, the Australian Anti-Dumping Commission issued Announcement No. 2025/012, stating that the release of the basic facts report and final recommendation for the third anti-dumping and countervailing sunset review investigation on aluminium extrusions imported from China has been postponed. The Commission is expected to release the basic facts report no later than July 16, 2025, and submit the final recommendation to the Australian Minister for Industry and Science no later than September 8, 2025.
3. Recently, Lizhong Group released its 2024 annual performance report. The company achieved revenue of 27.249 billion yuan in 2024, up 16.62 per cent Y-o-Y, and a net profit of 691 million yuan, up 14.08 per cent Y-o-Y. During the reporting period, the company maintained stable operations while actively expanding its market and customer resources. The steady increase in production and sales of its main products, coupled with the YoY rise in aluminium prices, effectively boosted the company's revenue.

Spot-Futures Price Spread Daily Report: According to SMM data, on February 26, the SMM alumina index showed a premium of 30 yuan/mt against the most-traded contract's latest transaction price at 11:30.

Warehouse Warrant Daily Report: On February 26, the total registered warehouse warrants for alumina increased by 6,605 tonnes from the previous trading day to 102,700 tonnes. In Shandong, the total registered warehouse warrants remained unchanged at 4,513 tonnes. In Henan, the total registered warehouse warrants decreased by 301 tonnes to 14,700 tonnes. In Guangxi, the total registered warehouse warrants remained at 0. In Gansu, the total registered warehouse warrants increased by 1,507 tonnes to 3,009 tonnes. In Xinjiang, the total registered warehouse warrants increased by 5,399 tonnes to 70,400 tonnes.

Overseas Market: As of February 26, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was USD 485 per tonne, with an ocean freight rate of USD 19.85 per tonne. The USD/CNY exchange rate sell price was around 7.28. This price translates to an external selling price of approximately RMB 4,230 per tonne at major domestic ports, which is RMB 856 per tonne higher than domestic alumina prices. The alumina import window remains closed.

Summary: Recently, there have been reports of minor alumina production cuts and maintenance in northern regions, coupled with concentrated news of domestic alumina exports, which have supported alumina prices and improved market sentiment. This week, spot alumina prices rebounded slightly. However, with the slight rebound in domestic spot alumina prices and the decline in overseas spot alumina prices, the domestic alumina export window has gradually closed.

Currently, alumina's operating capacity remains at a high level, while the incremental demand for aluminium is limited. The fundamental market structure has not yet fully shifted, and there is still resistance at the top for alumina prices. In the short term, alumina prices may enter a phase of fluctuation and adjustment. Continuous attention should be paid to the alumina export window and changes in alumina operating capacity.

Source: SMM